Car Market Trend and Outlook

The Iranian vehicle market in September 2023 falls for the 2nd month in a row, reporting 76,891 new registrations (-17.7%). YTD figures at 809,195 are up 0.2% from the previous year.

The market is dominated by three main brands: in 1st ranks Saipa with 325,850 cumulative sales in the first 3 quarters of 2023 (-5.3%) and 40.3% market share, followed by Peugeot with 248,294 units sold up to September (-6.5%) and 30.7% share. The local Manufacturer Iran Khodro ranks in 3rd with 21.9% market share and 176,906 new vehicle registrations (+18.9%).

The Saipa Pride/100-Series is the best selling model down 1.3% in volume, followed closely in second by the Saipa Quick (-9.6%).

Medium-Term Market Trend

The Iranian automotive industry would be one of the Top 15 in the World, considering the huge local production and the Iranian rule in the Middle East. However, the diplomatic war against Western countries with reiterated sanctions, have disrupted the industry in the recent years.

Following the 2014 Ginevra agreement, which allow to stop sanctions, the car market boomed over 1.5 million, but when President Trump decided to unilaterally ignore that agreement, reaffirming the sanctions status, the domestic economy was hit and so the car market.

In fact, the market lost volume in double digits in 2018 and 2019, reaching 793,891 total sales by the end of 2019 (-33.5%).

The pandemic didn’t affect vehicle sales in Iran, on the contrary the light vehicle sales surged 14.1% in 2020 to 905,643. In 2021 new vehicle registrations remained relatively flat, but in 2022 the market gained another 15.2% finally rising above the 1 million mark.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

Car Market Trend and Outlook

The Iranian vehicle market in 2022 totaled 1.05 million sales, a 15.5% increase following a flat performance in 2021. In fact, 11 months reported positive performances with December closing the year with 92,512 new registrations (+23.9%).

The market is dominated by three main brands: in 1st ranks Peugeot with 385,028 cumulative sales (+5.8%) and 36.5% market share, followed by Saipa with 363,411 units sold this year and 34.4% share. The local Manufacturer Iran Khodro ranks in 3rd with 17.9% market share and 189,370 new vehicle registrations (+70.3%).

The Saipa Pride/100-Series is the best selling model rising 18.8% in volume, followed closely in second by the Saipa Tiba/200-Series (+9.4%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

Market Trend

Iran’s car market this year remained flat, and reported growth only in Q2.

Following the recovery reported between 2014 and 2017, when sales doubled at 1.3 million annual units since 2018 the market approached a new declining pathway.

According to data released by the Iranian National Bureau of Statistics, in 2018 light vehicle sales (local production plus import) were 1,194,505 , with a drop of 23.1%, and the trend further deteriorated in 2019, when all imports stopped.

In 2019 the market registered a huge sales drop. Indeed, the market fell, registering 750,867 units, down 37.1%.

Sales in 2020 have grown by 8.7% despite the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, 816,497 units have been sold.

In 2021 the year started slightly negatively for the Iranian market, in fact, in Q1 236,061 units have been sold, reporting a 2% decrease in sales compared to Q1 2020, while in Q2 sales started growing, reporting a 14.5% increase in sales with 204,900 units sold due to the lower sales volume registered in Q2 2020.

In Q3 sales dropped again, losing 1.1% with 234,604 units sold, and in Q4 fell further down, losing 6.6% with 232,042 registrations.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2021 have been 907,607, just a 0.2% increase compared to 2020.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Peugeot (+24%) gained 7.7% market share, followed by Saipa (-10.8%), which lost 4.3% share. Iran Khodro lost 4.4% share, reporting a loss of 26.1%.  Renault remained in 4th place and reported the best performance on the leaderboard (+32.2%), followed by Zamyad which lost 45.2%.

Dongfeng -up 3 spots- gained 24.9%, followed by Brilliance (-22%) and ChangAn which lost 23.5%. Closing the leaderboard we have Haima -losing 3 spots- down 56.6% this year and Kia which lost 39.1%.

The most sold vehicle this year has been the Saipa Pride/100-Series, which held 19.9% share despite losing 22.8% sales.

Economic Environment

The economic panorama remained dire in recent months amid the twin impact of U.S sanctions and the third wave of coronavirus infections in the country. On 29 October, the U.S. unveiled further sanctions on petrochemical sales, adding more pressure to the embattled oil sector: Output stagnated in Q3, remaining at July’s record low level through August and September.

Moreover, also on 29 October, the U.S. announced it had sold 1.1 million barrels of Iranian petroleum that were seized en route to Venezuela, denying the Iranian government much-needed revenues with the proceeds channeled towards U.S. domestic causes.

Meanwhile, a rapid increase in daily cases at the outset of Q4 has necessitated a tightening of restrictions, including the closing of the border with Iraq and the closure of schools and universities, which bodes ill for activity.

Market Trend

The Iranian car market grew in 2020 despite the world-wide COVID-19 pandemic, which has impacted sales significantly.

Following the recovery reported between 2014 and 2017, when sales doubled at 1.3 million annual units since 2018 the market approached a new declining pathway.

According to data released by the Iranian National Bureau of Statistics, in 2018 light vehicle sales (local production plus import) were 1.194.505, with a drop of 23.1%, and the trend further deteriorated in 2019, when all imports stopped.

In 2019 the market registered a huge sales drop. Indeed, the market fell, registering 750.867 units, down 37.1%.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2020 have been 816.497, reporting a 8.7% increase in sales compared to 2019.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Peugeot (+16.8%) gained 2.4% market share, followed by Saipa (-23%), which lost 12.7% share. Iran Khodro gained 13.2% share, reporting the best performance in the leaderboard by increasing sales by 134.2%.  Zamyad remained in 4th place (+50.1%), followed by Renault which lost 14.8%.

Jianghuai -down 1 spot- lost 62.7% and therefore reported the worst performance, followed by Haima (-25.1%) and ChangAn which lost 1 spot and fell 38.9%. Closing the leaderboard we have Brilliance -up 1 spot- losing 26.8% this year overtaking Kia which lost 60.7%.

The most sold vehicle this year has been the Iran Khodro Samand (+126.6%) with 107.987 units sold, followed by the Peugeot Pars, which gained 27.6% registering 91.045 new sales this year. The Peugeot 206 sedan (+45.8%) closes the podium and reports 85.360 new units sold.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top 10 Brands and Top 10 Models.

Economic Environment

Iran’s economy darkened in recent weeks, as tensions with the U.S. rose following the U.S. assassination of Major General Qasem Soleimani and retaliatory missile strikes by Iran. This has generated further economic uncertainty, led to fresh U.S. sanctions, and raised the prospect of more conflict going forward, likely weighing on business sentiment.

Meanwhile, crude oil production continued to contract at an alarming rate in December, suggesting the energy sector remained in the doldrums.

Moreover, still-high inflation continues to hamper consumers’ purchasing power. On a brighter note, domestic activity likely benefited from a dip in the unemployment rate in June–September, and solid steel production.

Industry Outlook

The Iranian market is the largest in middle east with a powerful – but quite obsolete – local production and imports for all the international brand.

The industry – as many others sectors – life under the influence of international relations and the long dispute with US related to the potential local built of  nuclear weapons has isolated the country.

In the last decade, when the domestic market was around 1.5 million units (and within the top 15 in the World) the introduction of US sanctions closed the doors to products and parts to the sector, hitting the production and the sales of French products (Peugeot and Renault) always very strong in Iran in partnership with local producer.

In the 2013 the market hit a negative peak of 784.000 sales limiting the lost thanks to the fast development of Chinese brands, which partially covered the open spaces left by French carmakers. When sanctions had been stopped (2014) the re-start of production for Peugeot and Renault and the arrival of parts for local brands revamped the market, which grew up for four years in a row with 2017 sales at 1.34 million.

Unfortunately, the Trump’s election has generated new sanctions and despite EU was not aligned with US decision, all Car Manufacturers were “forced” to break any plans in the country. Peugeot was quite ahead in the plan to base Iran as production hub for EMEA region while Volkswagen was near to open local facilities when all projects have been stopped.

Market Trend

As anticipated, following the recovery reported between the 2014 and the 2017, when sales doubled at 1.3 million annual units, since the 2018 the market approached a new declining pathway.

According to data released by the Iranian National Bureau of Statistics, in the 2018 light vehicles sales (local production plus import) were 1.194.505, with a drop of 23.1% and the trend further deteriorated in the 2019, when all import stopped.

In 2019 the market registered a huge sales’ drop. Indeed, the market almost halved its sales, registering 655.515 units, down 45.1%.

Brand-wise, the market leader was Saipa with sales near to 0.22 million units, losing 35.4% of volume and holding over one-third of total market.

In second place there was Peugeot (indeed, we consider Peugeot the models, like the Peugeot 206, produced on French maker licence by the local manufacturers, while PSA stopped to consolidate the Iran activities within their global figures) with 209.844sales (-37.6%) and in third Iran Khodro with 93.45o units (-25.5%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

Economic Environment

Iran’s economy has contracted in H2 of Iran’s fiscal year (SH), after expanding marginally in H1 according to data from the Statistical Institute, with relatively low oil prices and U.S. sanctions weakening the external sector. As outlined in OPEC’s January report, Iran’s oil production declined significantly in Q4 relative to Q3.

On the political front, France, Germany and the UK launched a mechanism on 31 January that will facilitate trade of essentials like food and medicine with Iran. However, with U.S. sanctions limiting trade in other types of goods, the move is unlikely to provide a significant boost to Iran’s economy.

Market Trend

The Iranian market is the largest in middle east with a powerful – but quite obsolete – local production and imports for all the international brand.

The industry -as many others sectors – life under the influence of international relations and the long dispute with US related to the potential local built of  nuclear weapons has isolated the country. In the last decade, when the domestic market was around 1.5 million units (and within the top 15 in the World) the introduction of US sanctions closed the doors to products and parts to the sector, hitting the production and the sales of French products (Peugeot and Renault) always very strong in Iran in partnership with local producer.

In the 2013 the market hit a negative peak of 784.000 sales limiting the lost thanks to the fast development of Chinese brands, which partially covered the open spaces left by French carmakers. When sanctions had been stopped (2014) the re-start of production for Peugeot and Renault and the arrival of parts for local brands revamped the market, which grew up for four years in a row with 2017 sales at 1.34 million.

Unfortunately, the Trump’s election has generated new sanctions and the video in going back.

Peugeot had planned to create a hub in Iran to export in EMEA and Volkswagen was planning to start producing locally, but all projects has been cut and import collapsed in the 2018, while Chinese brands, not competitive in an open market, are back aggressive and ready to invest.

According to data released by the Iranian National Bureau of Statistics, in the 2018 light vehicles sales (local production plus import) were 1.194.505, with a drop of 23.1% from the previous year.

Competitive Arena

In the competitive landscape, the renewed issue due to sanctions has created huge difficulties to French carmakers, Peugeot and Renault, opening again highways to the invasion of Chinese carmakers.

Peugeot, which only last year kicked off a plan to produce and export modern vehicles from Iran, has decided to not more consolidate in the balance sheet the local joint venture figures and to stop any planned investment.

As far as local sales, the 2018 market leader was Saipa with 352.648 sales (-17.2%) overtaking Peugeot, second with 336.096 (-24.9%).

In third place Iran Khodro with 125.444 sales (-16.4%) followed by Renault with 85.052 -down a dramatic 52.4% – and Chery with 53.390 (-23.5%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

Iran’s stellar growth momentum is threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision, announced on 13 October, not to endorse the nuclear deal. While Trump did not pull out from the deal, he stated the U.S. will do so if Congress and U.S. allies do not reinstate economic sanctions against Iran, targeting in particular the country’s capabilities to build long-range missiles. However, the U.S.’s capacity to restrict Iran’s oil exports remains to be seen, as Iran is redirecting most of its exports to China and India.

Iran has been engulfed by a wave of anti-government protests since 28 December. The political unrest has been largely triggered by high prices and stubbornly high unemployment, particularly among young Iranians. Moreover, Iran’s stellar economic performance since the lifting of economic sanctions in January 2016 has not yet translated into improved living conditions for all citizens, and the country’s involvement in regional conflicts is taking its toll on fiscal spending

Iranian vehicles market is recovering after the fall created by the US sanctions with sales down at 784.000 in the 2013, at 40% of the all time record. Since 2014 the market is recovering and fast growing. In the 2017, according to data released by the Iranian National Bureau of Statistics, sales have been 1.347.000 (+15.3%).

The market leader  Peugeot has sold 447.000 cars, up 7.5%, with 28.8% of market share.

In second place Saipa with 425.000 units (-0.0%) ahead of Renault with 178.000 (+73.0%), Iran Khodro with 149.970 (-8.4%) and Chery with 69.808 (+48.5%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

Iran’s economy expanded at a considerable pace during the first half of SH 2016, which began on 20 March, powered by rising oil production and exports due to the lifting of economic sanctions. However, analysts warned that growth was failing to trickle down to ordinary people, with unemployment rising over the period.

A large fiscal deficit continues to weigh on the state’s ability to support growth, while measures to offset the drop in oil revenues—including higher utility fees and a lower public wage bill—are weighing on household spending.

The automotive sector boomed in the 2016 both in terms of local production and import while the optimistic plans to export local made vehicles failed so far, waiting for the start of Peugeot last models exports.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, domestic sales rebounded after years of constraints and in the year hit the 1.3 million, up a huge 27%, lifted by a fourth quarter over and above any observers expectations. Iran now is 15th in the global ranking.

Fully boosting the availability of local facilities Peugeot reinforced the leadership with sales volume up 15.3%, very close to the 0.4 million units, becoming the second market worldwide, not far from the level of France and better than China.

The second was Kia, up 25%, with over 250.000 sales. For the Korean brand this market was the fourth globally in the 2016, just behind China, USA and Korea.

The top local producer followed with Iran Kodro in third, up 5% and Saipa in fourth, up 25%. Renault was 5th jumping up 155%, the best score of the year.

At model wise, albeit the presence of several imported models, just local made, old fashion, models are on top. The leader was again the Kia Pride with 247.000 sales (+21.9%) ahead of the Peugeot 405 with 136.000 (+18.6%) and the Peugeot Pars , best commercial vehicle, with 126.000 (+4.0%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

Economic Outlook

The underground conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the region’s two powerhouses, resurfaced again at the start of the year when, on 2 January, the Saudi kingdom put prominent Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr to death. Following the execution, protests erupted in Tehran and the Saudi embassy was raided.

As a result, on 3 January, Saudi Arabia, along with other Gulf states, severed diplomatic ties with the Islamic republic. Moreover, Iran accused Saudi Arabia of deliberately striking its embassy in Yemen on 7 January. The Sunni monarchy had intervened in the Yemeni conflict in March 2014 in an attempt to suffocate a rebellion led by the Houthis, a Shia Muslim movement.

Although an open conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran is very unlikely, the current situation is adding to geopolitical risks in the region and is promising to bolster support for hardliners ahead of the 26 February election.

Market Outlook

Despite Iran is expected to be one of the new “gold treasure” for the automotive industry and several brands have approached the government to define plans for local assembly vehicles, observers should not hide the economic, social ans security environment in which actually most people is living in Iran.

They have not and during the 2015 the run to buy a new car, started in early 2014 when negotiations with ONU had started with suspension of economic sanctions, progressively disappeared to end with a huge fall in the last quarter.

Indeed according with data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, total new vehicles sold in the 2015 had been 996.015, down 8.7% from the previous year, the second worse volume in the last decade and very far from the 1.7 million record peaked in the 2010-2011.

Having finally sourced registrations data for the local brand (usually they had distributed only production data), we discovered that their quote in the domestic market is absolutely lower than expected.

The market leader was Peugeot, which fast revamped the local assembly facilities, with 33.4% of market share, followed by Kia with 21.1% and Iran Khodro with  15.7%, Saipa was fourth with 8.8%.

The best-selling model was the Kia Pride with 193.548 units (-18.7%). Second was the Peugeot Pars with 121.692 (-8.0% and third the Peugeot 405 with 108.927 (+11.1%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

In 2014 according to data collected by focus2move in the country including production information released by IVMA , the Iranian Automotive Industry Association, total new Light Passengers Vehicles sold have been 892.842, an amazing 32.8% increase compared with the previous year.

All started the day after the opening of political negotiation started in November 2013 (and still very far from a consolidated result) that could be read as the USA decision to suspend economic sanctions to Iran, in the hope of positive negotiation.

That day, all car-makers started looking at the largest middle east country where the automotive industry was based on European technology and left the local makers and Chinese new entrants under the sanctions period.

In less than a year the market was revitalized with sales and production boomed up.

The domestic market record had been hit in the 2009 at over 1.3 million units, before falling down at 562.000 in the 2012.

Peugeot was very fast on reactivating the local plants and thanks to a phenomenal performance soared on top of the market with over 318.000 sales in the year, outpacing the local makers, Saipa (2nd with 302.346 sales, +27.2%) and Iran Khodro (3rd with 120.289 sales, +5.3%).

Research, Consulting, Data & Forecast Store

F2M covers intensively this market with several products developed to help any investigation required.

Market Researches in PDF are immediately available for download with study on the market since 2005 and with forecast up to the 2020.

Auto Data in EXCEL are immediately downloadable with annual sales volume, split by month, for all brands and all models distributed in the market. This year data are released year to date, but you will receive a monthly update until the year-end.

All these and more within our Iran Store

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