Market Trend and Outlook

The Japanese Auto Market in October 2023 grows for the 14th month in a row, with new sales reaching 214,235 (+15.4%). YTD figures at 2.22 million are up 20.4% from the previous year.

Looking at cumulative data up to October 2023, brand-wise Toyota maintains 1st with 1.16 million sales (+33.0%), followed by Nissan at 218,223 (-1.2%), Honda at 212,163 registrations (+6.1%), Mazda at 119,019 (+9.6%), Suzuki with 101,158 sales (+22.9%), Lexus at 82,738 (+132.9%) and Subaru with 70,816 new registrations (+5.4%).

Mercedes ranks in 8th with 41,193 sales (+3.4%), in front of Mitsubishi with 39,582 sales (-6.4%) and BMW closing the Top 10 with 27,684 new car registrations (+10.9%).

Looking at specific models the Honda N-Box is the best seller with a 13.5% increase in year-on-year sales, followed by the Toyota Yaris which is up 13.0%.

Medium-Term Market Trend

The Japanese auto-market in the last decade hasn’t performed amazingly. With its last great rise in 2012 (+26%), sales have remained between the 5 and 5.5 million range until 2019 with the peak reached in 2014.

With the global pandemic in 2020 the entire world economy slowed down drastically, stores and manufactures closing down and most economies taking a beating. The Japanese auto market was no exception falling 12.5% and bringing sales to the mid 4 million range. Although the Japanese market did drop compared to other economies it stood its ground relatively well.

In the last few years the Japanese auto market hasn’t recovered from the fall in 2020. External factors are to blame for this fall in demand for automotives: firstly the lack of raw materials has lead car manufacturers to raise prices and waiting times for cars; another reason is that more and more manufacturers are pushing towards electric that on average costs much more than a diesel or petrol car. This being said despite the terrible performance in 2022, the Japanese market still maintains one of the largest auto markets in the world.

With 2023 starting off strong, this might be the year in which the Japanese Market finally starts to revoker from the covid driven collapse in 2020.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Market Trend and Outlook

The Japanese auto market in 2022 totals 2.22 millions sales, a 7.4% decrease from the prior year and the lowest level of the past decade. In December sales fell 5.4%, with 180,040 new registrations. 

Looking at cumulative data from 2022, brand-wise the top 7 remain unchanged compared to the previous year: Toyota in 1st with 1.04 millions sales (-14.2%), followed by Honda at 263,034 (-1.9%), Nissan at 236,813 registrations (+4.5%), Mazda at 126,616 (+5.3%), Suzuki with 101,382 sales (+2.2%), Subaru at 81,420 (-2.0%) and Mercedes with 52,391 cumulative sales (+1.3%).

Mitsubishi moves up 3 spots into 8th with 49,177 sales (+42.4%), in front of Lexus -down 1 spot- with 41,252 sales (-19.3%) and Daihatsu closing the Top 10 with 36,299 new car registrations (-7.8%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Research Contents

Focus2move Automotive Market Reports provide a comprehensive and complete overview of the competitive environment including information on the sales volumes of cars and light commercial vehicles, market size, market share, and industry trends. The research also provides a deep analysis of segments and complete data for brands and models in the last two years, plus forecasts for total market sales, segments, and brands up to 2028.

Through our comprehensive global sales database, and the expertise of seasoned consultants in the field, we can help you gain further insight into the automotive market trends and base your business decisions on actionable data.

Make sure you stay one step ahead of your competitors!

Focus2move market reports can help you assist your data-driven decision-making process by providing up-to-the-minute automotive industry intelligence.

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Table of contents:

• Country Overview
• Economic Outlook
• Market Outlook
  • Market Heritage
  • Car Passenger’s segmentation
  • LCVs segmentation
  • Car Passengers Body Type mix
  • LCVs Body Type mix
  • Premium segment share
  • Chinese OEMs share
• Key Players
  • Top selling Groups 2022
  • Top selling Brands 2022
  • Top selling models 2022
• Key Factors for market Evolution
• 2023-2028 Volume Forecast
  • TIV evolution by segment
  • Cars and LCVs forecast
  • Segments forecast
  • Premium segment share forecast
  • Chinese OEMs share forecast
  • Forecast by Manufacturer

Market Trend in November

The Japanese car market this year attempted to recover from the pandemic crash of 2020 and reported a very promising performance in the first half, followed by another double-digit fall.

It is the third biggest market in the world, with an annual volume oscillating in the last decade between 4.9 and 5.5 million units, with 2019 ending at 5.2 million units.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic sales fell in  2020. In fact, sales have been 4.598.610, reporting a decline of 11.6% compared to 2019.

In 2021 the year started positively for the Japanese market, in fact, in Q1 1.43 units have been sold, reporting a 4.2% increase in sales compared to Q1 2020, while in Q2 sales started growing quickly, reporting a 23.8% increase in sales with 1.03 million units due to the incredibly low volumes in Q2 2020.

In Q3 sales started falling in double-digits, losing 14.8% sales with 1,02 million units, and kept falling 19.2% in Q4 with 968,238 units.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2021 have been 4.45 million, reporting a 3.3% decrease compared to 2020.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Toyota (-2.1%) gained 0.4% market share and. In second place we have Suzuki (-3.6%), maintaining 13.7% share, followed by Honda which lost 0.4% share, falling 6.4%.  Daihatsu remained in 4th place and lost 3.4%, followed by Nissan which lost 3.6%.

Mazda remained in 6th place and lost 11.2%, followed by Subaru (-4%) and Mitsubishi which reported the best performance in the leaderboard and gained 10.5% sales. Closing the leaderboard we have Isuzu losing 5.5% this year and Hino in last place losing just 0.1%.

The most sold vehicle this year is the Toyota Yaris (+40.3%) with 212,927 units sold, followed by the Honda N-Box registering 188,940 new sales this year. The Toyota Roomy (+54.5%) closes the podium and reports 134,801 new units sold.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Market Trend

The Japanese car market has been hit in 2020 by the world-wide COVID-19 pandemic, which has impacted sales significantly.

It is the third biggest market in the world, with an annual volume oscillating in the last decade between 4.9 and 5.5 million units, with 2019 ending at 5.2 million units.

At the beginning of 2020, according to the data released by the JADA, JAMA, and JAIA, the total vehicles (including HCVs and Bus) started in a very negative tone (-13.5%). The situation was improving slowly up until the virus struck, leading to a very sharp drop in sales in April (-23.7%), followed by the worst-performing month of the year in May (-36.8%).

In the second half of the year the country recovered reporting only one month with a double-digit sales drop (August, down 15.2%), but also only one month of growth in the entire year (October, +1.8%).

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2020 have been 4.598.610, reporting a decline of 11.6% compared to 2019.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Toyota (-5.9%) gained 2.1% market share and registered the best hold in the leaderboard. In second place we have Suzuki (-8.2%), which gained 0.5% share, overtaking Honda which lost 0.6% share, falling 15.6%.  Daihatsu remained in 4th place and lost 10.7%, followed by Nissan which lost 18.3%.

Mazda remained in 6th place and lost 12.4%, followed by Subaru (-20.5%) and Mitsubishi which reported the worst performance in the leaderboard by losing 33.3% sales. Closing the leaderboard we have Isuzu losing 19.5% this year and Hino in last place losing 14.9%.

The most sold vehicle this year remains the Honda N-BOX (-2.3%) with 247.707 units sold, followed by the Toyota Yaris registering 151.766 new sales this year. The Suzuki Spacia (-15.9%) closes the podium and reports 139.851 new units sold.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Economic Environment

Japanese economy grew faster than initially estimated in the third quarter, according to a second GDP release. The improvement was due to upgraded estimates for the domestic economy, notably fixed investment. The external sector, however, continued to flag, likely weighed on by trade tensions with Korea and between the U.S. and China.

Turning to the fourth quarter, economic activity appears to be waning given the PMI measuring private sector activity fell into contractionary territory in October and remained stuck there through December. Activity is likely being subdued by the sales tax increase from 8% to 10% that took effect in October; Typhoon Hagibis, which hit Japan in October; and continued trade tensions.

Market Trend

The Japanese vehicles market is the third in the World with an annual volume oscillating in the last decade between 4.9 and 5.5 million units and with 2017 and 2018 ended at 5.25 million.

In 2019, according to the data released by the JADA, JAMA and JAIA, the total vehicles (including HCVs and Bus) were marginally negative.

Indeed, Total sales have been 5.18 million, down 1.6% from the previous year.

The market was dominated by three local brands, Toyota, Honda and Nissan holding a combined share near 70%. However, their share was 74% in the 2014 and 79.5% in the 2010.

They are losing share in favor of imported brands, with Mercedes at 2.4%, BMW at 1.7%, Volkswagen 1.7%, Mini at 0.9% and Audi at 0.9%.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Economic Environment

Japanese economy fared worse than initially reported in the third quarter as strong typhoons and a powerful earthquake severely disrupted economic activity. The economy is, however, expected to return to growth in the fourth quarter as supply chains recover from the natural disasters. The manufacturing PMI averaged slightly higher in Q4 than in Q3, while confidence among large manufacturing firms steadied at relatively high levels in the same period.

Fundamentals should remain robust next year thanks to ultra-loose monetary policy, a tight labor market and construction works related to the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. A scheduled tax hike and rising trade protectionism will weigh on growth, however.

Market Trend

Japanese vehicles market is the third in the World and really mature. In the recent years total sales had been between 5.0 million and 5.5 million (in the 2014). The 2017 was extremely positive and, according to the data released by the JADA, JAMA and JAIA, the total vehicles (including HCVs and Bus) sold in the country have been 5.26 million (+5.3%)

In the 2018, the total vehicles market (including HCVs and Bus) was flat. Having started negatively the year, down 24% in the first quarter, the sales have recovered ending at 5.269.442 (+0.1%). This is the second consecutive positive annual score, the best result since 2014.

Competitive Arena

Considering only the car passenger’s (including kei-cars) segment, the competitive landscapes in 2018 was dominated by Toyota, selling 1.328.961 vehicles (-6%).

Honda is second with 703.066 registrations (+0.9%) followed by Suzuki with 568.828 (+7.5%), Nissan with 503.600 (+3.5%), Daihatsu with 486.875 (-5.3%),  Mazda with 197.314 (+8.1%), Subaru with 137.538 sales (-16.7%), Mitsubishi with 91.861 units (+17.2%) and Mercedes with 67.554 sales (-1%).

In 10th place Lexus with 55.096 (+20.8%), followed by Volkswagen with 51.961 (+6%) and BMW with 50.982 sales (-2.9%).

At model level, the 2018 market leader is the Honda N-Box with 241870 sales (+10.7%), followed by the Suzuki Spacia with 152.104 (+66.3%) and the Nissan Dayz with 141.495 (+2.9%).

In the regular car ranking, the Nissan Note is the best-selling model, scoring its ever annual win with 136.324 (-1.9%) units sold.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Japanese economy growth momentum appears to have carried over into Q4 as strong global demand propels demand for Japanese goods. This year’s stellar export performance is supporting manufacturing activity, as highlighted by December’s PMI figure, which hit a nearly four-year high. Investment is also benefiting from resilient global growth, with business confidence in Q4 climbing to an over one-decade high. Although weak wage growth is preventing the economy from achieving a more sustainable trajectory, consumers are increasingly confident that their incomes will increase in the coming months, providing a glimmer of hope to policymakers

Japanese vehicles market is the third in the World and really mature. In the recent years total sales had been between 5.0 million and 5.5 million (in the 2014). The 2017 was extremely positive and, according to the data released by the JADA, JAMA and JAIA, the total vehicles (including HCVs and Bus) sold in the country have been 5.26 million (+5.3%)

At brand-wise Toyota has sold 1.587.000 units (+1.9%) with market share at 30.2%.

Honda was second with 724.000 registrations (+2.5%) followed by Suzuki with 674.000 (+8.3%), Daihatsu with 657.000 (+11.9%), Nissan with 585.000 (+9.6%), Mazda, with 206.000 (+2.6%), Subaru with 176.000 sales (+13.5%) and Mitsubishi with 91.622 units (+6.9.%).

In 11th place the importers leaders, Mercedes with 68.221 sales (+1.2%) followed by BMW with 52.527 units (+3.9%) and Volkswagen with 49.040 (+3.8%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Market Outlook

An accommodative monetary policy and a weaker yen are expected to boost growth next year. That said, ambitious economic and social reforms are needed to ensure a healthier and more sustainable growth trajectory. The main downside risk to growth next year will be increased protectionism under Trump’s administration. Analysts see the economy growing 0.9% next year.

The domestic new vehicles market kept the shy trend losing again in the 2016, for the third year in a row hitting the lowest level since 2012.

Indeed, according to the data released by the JADA, JAMA and JAIA, (the Japanese Associations of car manufacturers, importers and dealers), the year ended with a good December recovery, when sales had been 397.477 (+7.9%) reducing the full year lost at only 1.5% with figures at 4.959.680 units.

Competitive Arena

The market leader Toyota sold 1.528.173 vehicles (+5.5%) ahead of Honda and Suzuki, while among the highest increases there were Abarth, Jeep, Peugeot, DS and Mini. The best performances had been reported by Smart and Jaguar, improving 345.5% and 113.7%.

Ford hit the sharpest slowdown, losing 55.2%. Others remarkable lost reported for Alfa Romeo, Mazda, Mitsubishi and Volkswagen.

The Toyota Prius was the best-selling model with 248.258 units (+85.0%), while in 2nd place was the Honda N-Box with 175.073 (-5.3%) ahead of the Toyota Aqua with 168.208 (-22.0%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Economic Outlook

Stronger than expected dynamics in investment helped the Japanese economy avoid falling into recession in Q3. Revised data showed that GDP expanded at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.0% in Q3, which contrasted the 0.8% decline initially reported. Growth in Japan remains constrained by weaker demand from overseas, in particular from China, although the country is also suffering from slow progress in the implementation of much-needed pro-growth reforms. On the upside, steady gains in the labor market are propping up consumer confidence, which hit a two-year high in November.

Moreover, a weak yen is allowing Japanese businesses to sharply increase their profits, giving a boost to capital expenditure. In this regard, machinery orders expanded strongly in October. With no major surprises, on 10 December, the Japanese government approved the draft of tax reforms planned for FY2016, which includes the planned cut in the corporate tax rate to 29.97%. In line with expectations, on 18 December, the government approved a supplementary budget of JPY 3.5 trillion (USD 28.8 billion).

Market Outlook

At the end of a disappointing year, in December the third largest global car market fell in double-digit losing over 14% in the 11th year-on-year decline of the year, the 19th out of the last 21 months.  However annual sales had been just a little above the 5 million units, avoiding to drop down this key barrier.

According to the data released by the JADA, JAMA and JAIA, (the Japanese Associations of car manufacturers, importers and dealers), in December sales were 368.540, down 14.4% while the full year 2015 sales had been 5.034.919, down 7.9%.

Following the approval of 2017 FY budget local observers have assigned to this market again a negative outlook while increased taxes on Key Cars would further depress the market during the next year.

In the 2015, Toyota’ sales were reported at 1.449.067 (-4.0%) the best performance out of the top 5 brands with market share at 28.8%. In second place Honda sold 726.828 units, down 14.4% ahead of Suzuki with 636.360 (–19.2%), Daihatsu with 610.396 (-13.8%), Nissan with 588.099 (-14.0%) and Mazda with 245.637 (+9.0%).

As far as ranking by group, Toyota Group dominates with market share at 43.6% followed by Honda at 14.4%, Suzuki at 12.6% and Renault-Nissan at 11.8%.

As far as the best-selling models, the leader was the hybrid Toyota Aqua with 25.125 sales (-7.6%) followed by the Honda N-Box with 184.920 (+2.8%), the Daihatsu Tanto with 157.756 (-32.7%), the Nissan Dayz with 150.696 (-11.0%) and the Toyota Prius with 134.189 (-26.9%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.