Market Trend and Outlook

Pakistan’s economy slowed sharply in FY23 with real GDP estimated to have contracted by 0.6%. According to the World Bank’s latest Pakistan Development Update: Restoring Fiscal Sustainability, released on October 3rd 2023, the decline in economic activity reflects the cumulation of domestic and external shocks including the floods of 2022, government restrictions on imports and capital flows, domestic political uncertainty, surging world commodity prices, and tighter global financing.

In particular the continuous floods started in June of 2022 have affected many live in Pakistan, causing more than 1500 death, over 12,000 injuries and displacing around 33 million people. The heavy rain also destroyed many cars both on the road and in dealerships, inducing a collapse in the countries vehicle industry.

The Pakistani Vehicle Market, in fact, hasn’t yet recovered, with sales in October 2023 continuing to fall, posting the 16th consecutive monthly loss with 6,121 new registrations (-54.0%). YTD figures at 69,481 are down 63.4% from the prior year.

Looking at cumulative data up to October 2023 brand-wise, the leader is Suzuki, in 1st with 31,749 sales (-68.9%), in front of Toyota at 18,355 (-62.3%), Honda  with 8,745 new registrations (-67.6%) and Hyundai with 7,752 units sold (-34.5%).

Haval rises into 5th with 2,179 sales, Chery follows in 6th with 562 new registrations and BAIC in 7th with 139 units sold (-62.2%).

Looking at specific models the Suzuki Alto is the best seller with an 67.2% year-on-year loss in volume, followed by the Toyota Corolla down 69.7%.

Medium-Term Market Trend

Pakistani automotive industry is closed to import by the huge duties imposed by the government. The industry is so deputy to a small group of foreign (Japanese) companies which have invested years ago to produce locally, which offer dated models at huge (for the local purchase power) price.

Consumers have very limited choice as model, specification, negotiation.

The most of people prefer to purchase a motorcycle instead of car for personal use and the car industry is very small compared to the population living in the country.

Anyhow, the light vehicles market was growing up until the 2019 introduction of additional duties, with the all-time record established in the 2018 at 264K.

In 2019 the market fell down for increased prices correlated with increased taxes and in 2020 collapsed again for the effect of covid restrictions, hitting the lowest level in the last 15 years.

Despite surging 89.4% in 2021, the market took a substantial hit in 2022. In June of 2022 Pakistan started to experienced heavy floods that destroyed the country and induced the automotive industry to collapse. In fact, the last 6 months of the year reported losses, with total sales reaching 231,248 by the end of 2022 (-4.8%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Market Trend and Outlook

Continuous rain since the beginning of June 2022 has affected many lives in Pakistan, especially in Sindh and Balochistan provinces. The flood, considered the worst in the Country’s history, has killed more than 1,500 people, more than 12,000 people were injured, and more than 33 million people were displaced.

Due to the heavy rainfall and landslides, roads were swept away, bridges collapsed, and houses were surrounded by floodwater. The communities are currently experiencing flood-related diseases such as diarrhea, dengue, malaria, and malnutrition due to massive devastation to crops and livestock. Many live in temporary shelters as their houses were destroyed during the massive flood in July and August.

Vehicles at home or in the road on the dealerships have been destroyed by the flood and the people’s priority dramatically shifted to surviving. Of course new vehicles market collapsed in this period and before recovering will need time.

The Pakistani Vehicles Market in 2022 totals 225,050 registrations, a 4.7% decrease from 2021. Sales in December at 16,921 fell for the 6th month in a row (-37.8%).

Looking at cumulative data from 2022 brand-wise, all brands in the rankings remain in the same position as the previous year. Suzuki in 1st with 125,947 sales (+2.6%), followed by Toyota at 54,769 (-20.8%), Honda with 31,006 (-11.8%) and finally Hyundai at 12.882 sales (+44.7%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Market Trend

The Pakistani car market this year recovered extremely effectively from the pandemic crash of 2020 and reported a very positive performance all year, with the largest growth in Q2 due to the low levels of Q2 2020.

The market has been unstable in the 2010-2014 period of time, registering a sharp fall in 2013, before embarking on a positive pathway in the following years. In 2017 the market was sustained by robust internal demand, reaching 247,330 sales (+18.3%), followed by the current all-time record in 2018 at 264,442 (+6.9%).

However, in 2019, the market has imploded due to a tax introduction, making new car imports negligible. As a result, the Full-year ended at 192,814 units sold, losing 27.1% from the previous year.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic sales fell in  2020. In fact, 127,939 units have been sold, reporting a decline of 33.6% compared to 2019.

In 2021 the year started positively for the Pakistan market, in fact, in Q1 56,031 units have been sold, reporting a 73.3% increase in sales compared to Q1 2020, and in Q2 sales accelerated, reporting a 249% increase in sales with 47,812 units due to the incredibly low volumes in Q2 2020.

In Q3 sales kept rising quickly, gaining 84.4% sales with 70,623 units, and in Q4 sales increased by 56.9% with 68,420 units.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2021 have been 242,886, reporting a 89.8% increase compared to 2020.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Suzuki (+107.9%) gained 3.7% market share, followed by Toyota (+71.5%), which lost 3.5% share. Honda lost 3% share, gaining 59.3%. 

Hyundai remained in 4th place (+372.6%), followed by Isuzu -up 1 spot- which reported the best performance by gaining 459.1%. Master gained 131.8%, followed by Hino -down 2 spots- which gained 19%, Jac which rose 83.2% and BAIC.

The most sold vehicle this year has been the Suzuki Alto (+128.6%) with 53,887 units sold, followed by the Toyota Yaris, which gained 102.3% registering 28,673 new sales this year. The Toyota Corolla (+37.2%) closes the podium and reports 25,831 new units sold.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Market Trend

The Pakistani car market has been hit in 2020 by the world-wide COVID-19 pandemic, which has impacted sales significantly.

The market has been unstable in the 2010-2014 period of time, registering a sharp fall in 2013, before embarking on a positive pathway in the following years. In 2017 the market was sustained by robust internal demand, reaching 247.330 sales (+18.3%), followed by the current all-time record in 2018 at 264.442 (+6.9%).

However, in 2019, the market has imploded due to a tax introduction, making new car imports negligible. As a result, the Full-year ended at 192.814 units sold, losing 27.1% from the previous year.

After starting the year with a very negative trend (-42.6%), the market kept collapsing in March as the virus struck. The sharpest drop in sales this year was in April when sales declined by 99.6%.

In the following months, the market recovered and started growing again in August when sales rose by 36.2%. For the rest of the year, double-digit growth was maintained, with the biggest growth registered in November (+45.5%).

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2020 have been 127.939, reporting a decline of 33.6% compared to 2019.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Suzuki (-47.1%) lost 10.4% market share, followed by Toyota (-14.1%), which gained 7.9% share. Honda gained 3.1% share, falling 21.4%. 

Hyundai -up 4 spots- reached 4th place, followed by Master -down 1 spot- which lost 49.6%. Hino lost 67.1%, followed by Isuzu -down 2 spots- which lost 85.5%, and Jac on the other hand gained 6.7%. 

The most sold vehicle this year has been the Suzuki Alto (-7%) with 23.569 units sold, overtaking the Toyota Corolla, which lost 53.5% registering 18.825 new sales this year. The Toyota Yaris closes the podium and reports 14.172 new units sold.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Economic Environment

Pakistani economy likely remained weak in the first quarter of FY 2020, which ran from July to September. Large-scale manufacturing contracted at a sharper rate in Q1 than in the previous quarter, while higher electricity tariffs also likely depressed household spending. Turning to the second quarter, the current account balance posted a surplus in October for the first time in roughly four years, partly thanks to stronger exports, boding well for the external sector. That said, a dip in consumer confidence and elevated inflation will likely constrain consumer spending.

Growth is projected to decelerate in FY 2020, dragged by slowing private consumption due to higher taxes and tight monetary conditions. In addition, weak public finances and tensions with India pose downside risks to the outlook.

Market Trend

Pakistani vehicles market in recent years has reacted promptly to the 2013 fall with sales improved from 140.732 (2013) to a record of 226.141 (2015) before to decline at 208.998 in the 2016. In the 2017 the market was sustained by a robust internal demand, hitting another record at 247.330 (+18.3%).

In 2018 the market kept momentum improving from the previous year, incresing sales by 6.9% with 264.442 units sold. Moreover, this was the first time the Pakistani market crossed the quarter-million annual sales.

In 2019, according to data released by the Pakistani Automotive Manufacturers Association, the market has imploded due to a tax introduction, making new car imports negligible. Indeed, the Full-year ended at 186.588 units sold, losing 26.8% from the previous year.

The competitive landscape sees the market leader Suzuki still on top, holding 57.3% of the market, after keeping a stable share during the last decade

Behind, Toyota – losing almost 5 points of market share from 2010 – ended in second place, followed by the worst brand of the year, Honda, which has instead grown from 10.4% in 2010 to 14.4%.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Economic Environment

Pakistani economy has had a mixed start to FY 2019, which began in July. In November, the Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves were broadly steady after falling significantly in the preceding months. For its part, the large current account deficit narrowed slightly in July–October from the same period a year earlier, primarily due to higher remittances. These inflows helped outweigh a sharp rise in the merchandise import bill caused by higher oil prices.

A slowdown is expected this fiscal year as the country grapples with economic imbalances, remittances growth slows, and the government negotiates with the IMF for financial support.

Market Trend

Pakistani vehicles market in recent years has reacted promptly to the 2013 fall with sales improved from 140.732 (2013) to a record of 226.141 (2015) before to decline at 208.998 in the 2016. According to data released by the Pakistani Automotive Manufacturers Association, in the 2017 the market was sustained by a robust internal demand and hit the new all time record at 247.330 (+18.3%).

In the 2018 the market kept momentum improving from last year. Indeed, sales registered an increase by 6.9%, keeping the positive trend of recent years, ending with 264.442 units sold. Moreover, this is the first time the Pakistani market crosses the quarter-million annual sales.

Market Outlook

After fluctuating during the recent years, the market hit the all-time record last year and is seen to be growing during the 2019-2025 period of time. However, Pakistani growth is seen slowing this fiscal year, as Pakistan grapples with economic imbalances and remittance growth likely moderates.

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Competitive Arena

The great news of recent month – in a market dominated by few brands – is the landing of a new player, the first Chinese maker able to open a local plant, JAC Motors, which started producing and selling the commercial pick up, X200. The JAC arrival is just the first of a series as others carmakers are planning to start-up local operations. The next will be Renault in the 2019.

As far as the current competitive scenario, the 2018 ranking is dominated by Suzuki which sold 140.311 vehicles (+8.9%) with a market share of 53.10%.

Behind Toyota with 65.557 (+6.5%) and Honda with 48.972 (+3.2%).

As far as the 2018 best-selling models, the Toyota Corolla is the market leader with 54.037 sales (+3.5%), followed by the Suzuki Mehran actually second with 42.046 (-2.2%). In third place the Suzuki Wagon R  with 31.619 (+30.4%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.