Market Trend and Outlook

The Chinese economy is on track to meet the government’s 2023 growth target, reflecting a strong post-COVID recovery. Real GDP is projected to grow by 5.4 percent in 2023 and slow to 4.6 percent in 2024 amid continued weakness in the property sector and subdued external demand.

China’s credit-fueled growth in recent years was accompanied by widening imbalances and rising vulnerabilities. Excessively high household savings were used to finance infrastructure and residential investment with diminishing returns, resulting in elevated debt levels.

The Chinese auto market has shown signs of slower growth in 2023, with YTD figures at 17.80 million down 2.3% from the previous year. In October 2023 sales grew 9.7% after falling for 4 consecutive months, reporting 2.08 million new sales.

Looking at cumulative data up to October 2023, brand-wise the Chinese EV manufacturer BYD becomes the leader for the first time with 2.04 million sales (+52.6%), followed by the Volkswagen -down 1 spot- in 2nd at 1.77 million (-6.3%).

Toyota falls 1 spot into 3rd with 1.42 million sales  (-6.8%), followed by Honda with 959,669 registrations (-18.2%), Changan with 932,498 sales (+7.4%) and Geely with 794,676 units sold (+8.2%).

In 7th place ranks BMW with 651,207 sales (+4.4%), followed by Mercedes -up 1 spot– with 614,016 (+0.2%), Audi -up 4 spots- with 575,192 (+8.7%) and Wuling closing the Top 10 with 544,021 sales (-9.2%).

Best selling models in China are the BYD Qin PLUS in 1st -up 6 spots- with 355,017 sales (+36.7%) and the Tesla Model Y in 2nd -up 3 spots- with 346,462 cumulative units sold (+20.9%).

Medium-Term Market Trend

The Chinese vehicle market is the largest in the world and in the last decade it has maintained an overall positive trend. Starting from 14.0 million sales in 2011 the Chinese light vehicle market grew 7 years in a row reaching an all time high in 2017 with 25.6 million registrations. The following 2 years were both negative taking the market sales to 22.5 million in 2019.

The arrival of the pandemic in 2020 blocked the world economy making demand for cars fall world wide. The Chinese market stood its ground dropping only 5.9%, a smaller fall compared to 2019 (-7.6%), taking sales down to 21.2 million.

Post-covid the Chinese vehicle market recovered immediately with sales rising 4.0% in 2021 and 1.0% in 2022. Despite the overall trend in 2022 being positive, the last 3 months all reported losses, a negative trend that will probably continue into 2023.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Sweden Best Selling Car up to August 2023 is the Tesla Model Y, up 6 spots with a 133.3% increase in YTD volume. Kia EV6 enters the Top 10 with a stellar performance, rising 10 spots from 2022 (+34.7%).

In the Swedish market, the top 10 best selling models represent the 29.0% of total sales, which becomes 67.0% when considering the Top 50 reported below.

Up to August 2023 the Tesla Model Y is the new leader -up 6 spots- with 10,407 sales (+133.3%) in front of the Volvo XC40 which stands at 7,212 (-2.8%).

The Volvo XC60 maintains third with 6,900 sales (-3.2%) ahead of the Volkswagen ID.4 with 6,526 sales (+29.8%) and the Volvo S/V60 in 5th at 3,570 sales (-33.8%).

In sixth place ranks the Toyota RAV4 with 3,560 sales (-15.9%), followed by the Kia Niro -up 3 spots- with 3,425 registrations (-44.7%) and the Kia EV6 -up 10 spots- with 3,258 units sold (+34.7%).

In 9th place the Kia Cee’d with 3,190 sales (-39.2%) and in 10th place the Skoda Enyaq -up 7 spots- with 3,119 units sold (+28.3%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top 50 models.

Market Trend and Outlook

Chinese industry is one of the most affected by disruption created in the country by the “Zero Covid” strategy, which forced millions people and workers into shutdown in all the main metropolitan regions this year, with production lost both in components and vehicles amd with showrooms frequently waste of products and clients.

However, the strong demand focused on new electric vehicles, sustained the domestic market, which was more resilient than many other industries.

The Chinese auto market in 2022 shows resilience despite the strong covid regulations,  totaling 22.15 million sales, a 1.0% increase compared to the prior year. In December new registrations fell for the 3rd month in a row, reporting 2.24 million (-8.2%)

Looking at cumulative data from 2022, brand-wise the leader is still Volkswagen with 2.30 million sales (+5.5%), followed by Toyota in 2nd at 1.86 million (+10.8%).

The Chinese manufacturer BYD moves up 11 spots into 3rd with 1.76 million sales  (+157.1%) and is the real winner this year.

In fourth place stands Honda at 1.39 million (-9.0%) followed by Changan at 1.10 (+13.1%) and Geely with 892,047 (-16.8%).

In 7th place ranks Chery with 871,956 (+1.5%) followed by Nissan with 821,408 (-17.9%), BMW with 755,487 (-7.6%) and Mercedes closing the Top 10 with 739,790 sales (-0.2%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Sweden Best Selling Car in 2022 is the Volvo XC40 followed by the Volvo XC60. Electric vehicles are growing rapidly with Tesla Model Y and Volkswagen ID.4 already in the top 10.

In the Swedish market, the top 10 best selling models represent the 29.7% of total sales, which grow up at 69.0% when considering the Top 50 reported below.

In 2022 the Volvo XC40 is the new leader with 14,252 sales (+16.4%) overtaking the Volvo XC60 which stands at 12,009 (+0.6%).

The Kia Niro enters the podium for the first time with 8,909 sales (-13.6%) ahead of the Volkswagen ID.4 with 8,874 (+23.6%) and the Volvo S/V60 down 4 spots in 5th at 8,545 sales (-42.7%).

In sixth place ranks the Kia Cee’d with 8,056 sales (-29.3%) followed by the Tesla Model Y with 6,550 (+112.7%) and the Toyota RAV 4 with 6,317 (-19.7%).

In 9th place the Kia Sportage with 5,032 and in 10th place the Volvo S/V90 with 4,852 (-14.7%).

Remarkable performances are held by the new Kia EV6 (16th), the Volvo C40 (22nd) and the Toyota Yaris Cross (26th).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top 50 models.

Market Trend

The Chinese car market this year kept recovering effectively, but reported positive performance only in Q1, with the sharpest drop reported in Q3.

The market has slowed down since 2016, after having achieved 30% of global sales. The future evolution is clearly driven more by real solutions regarding the two main issues created by the last decade’s market boom: pollution, and traffic congestion.

The Chinese government has shifted its attention from total volume to engine mix and is progressively creating incentives for small and low emission vehicles while supporting investment in the AFVs, mainly electric. In this direction, in January 2017 it has been increased the duties for vehicles with engine displacements over 1.6 liters (from 5% to 7.5%). During 2017, sales have been 28.2 million, up 0.9%.

However, in 2018, new light-vehicle sales have progressively lost steam, following the deceleration of the domestic consumer demand. Indeed, The market interrupted the positive trend of recent years losing for the first time since the ’90s and closing 2018 with 27.5 million units sold (-3.7%). In 2019 the Full-year ended at 25.7 million, down 6.5% from the previous year

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic sales fell in  2020. In fact, 24,730,045 units have been sold, reporting a decline of 4.1% compared to 2019.

In 2021 the year started extremely positively for the Chinese market due to extremely low sales levels in Q1 2020, in fact, in Q1 6.03 million units have been sold, reporting a 61.7% increase in sales, while in Q2 sales remained almost flat, reporting a 1.3% decrease in sales with 6.12 million units.

In Q3 sales dropped quickly, losing 14.2% sales with 5.82 million units, and lost 5.5% in Q4 with 7.69 million sales.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2021 have been 25.65 million, reporting a 3.2% increase compared to 2020.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Volkswagen (-17.6%) lost 2% market share and registered the worst performance in the leaderboard, followed by Toyota (+4.5%), which gained 0.2% share. Wuling gained 1.5% share, increasing sales by 34.3%, reporting the best performance.  Honda fell in 4th place while losing 6.7%, followed by Changan which gained 10.1%.

Geely reached 6th place by losing 7.6%, followed by Nissan (-12.5%) -down 3 spots- and Buick which lost 10.5% sales. Closing the leaderboard we have BMW -up 2 spots- reporting the best performance in the leaderboard by gaining 6.7% and Mercedes -down 1 spot-, losing 3.4%.

The most sold vehicle this year has been the Nissan Sylphy (-7.8%) with 500,150 units sold, followed by the Wuling Mini Truck, which lost 1.5% registering 494,412 new sales this year. The Wuling Hongguang Mini EV (+257.6%) closes the podium and reports 426,484 new units sold.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Sweden Best selling cars in 2021 keeps reporting a big dominance of Volvo, holding all three top positions. Volvo S/V60 remains the leader with 5.1% of market share, followed by the XC40 and the XC60. Impressive performance by the Volkswagen ID.4, reaching 7th place.

In the Swedish market, 32.1% of market share is held by the top 10 models while the top 50 represents 71.3%. The podium is dominated by Volvo.

Indeed, in 2021 the Volvo S/V60 remains at the top of the ranking, dominating with a 5.1% market share and 14,916 sales. Behind, Volvo holds 2 other models, the Volvo XC40, which jumped 1 position, with a 4.2% market share and 12,242 sales.

In third place, the Volvo XC60, which fell 1 position, with 4.1% share and 11,949 sales, followed by the Kia Cee’d and the Kia Niro, holding respectively 3.9% share with 11,399 sales and 3.5% share with 10,311 units.

Behind, the Toyota Rav4 reached 6th place with 7,865 units (2.7% share), followed by the Volkswagen ID.4 with 7,177 units sold (2.5% share) and the Toyota Corolla with 6,531 units (2.2% share).

In ninth position, we have the Volkswagen Tiguan up 1 spot with 4,219 units (2.3% share) and finally in last position the Volkswagen Passat falling 5 spots with 4,045 units sold (2.2% share).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top 50 models.

Sweden Best selling cars in 2020 reported a big dominance of Volvo, holding all three top positions. Volvo S/V60 remains the leader with 6.5% of market share, followed by the XC60 and the XC40. Impressive performance also by the Toyota RAV4.

In the Swedish market, 35% of share is held by the top 10 models while the top 50 represents 75%. The podium is dominated by Volvo, with a total of 4 models in the top 10.

Indeed, the Volvo S/V60 remains at the top of the ranking, dominating with a 6.5% market share and 18.567 sales. Behind, Volvo holds 2 other models, the Volvo XC60, which jumped 2 positions, with a 4.3% market share and 12.291 sales.

In third place, the Volvo XC40, which jumped 5 positions, with 3.6% share and 10.293 sales, followed by the Volkswagen Golf and the Volkswagen Passat, holding respectively 3.5% share with 9.856 sales and 3.4% share with 9.792 units.

Behind, the Volvo S/V90 fell in 6th place with 9.092 units (3.2% share), followed by the Kia Niro with 8.790 units sold (3.1% share) and the Kia Cee’d -up 1 spot- with 6.845 units (2.4% share).

In ninth position, we have the Toyota RAV4 rising 8 spots with 6.796 units (2.4% share) and finally in last position the Volkswagen Tiguan -down 5 spots- with 6.575 units sold (2.3% share).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top 50 models.

Market Trend

The Chinese car market has been hit slightly in 2020 despite the world-wide COVID-19 pandemic, which has impacted sales everywhere in the world.

The market has slowed down since 2016, after having achieved 30% of global sales. The future evolution is clearly driven more by real solutions regarding the two main issues created by the last decade’s market boom: pollution, and traffic congestion.

The Chinese government has shifted its attention from total volume to engine mix and is progressively creating incentives for small and low emission vehicles while supporting investment in the AFVs, mainly electric. In this direction, in January 2017 it has been increased the duties for vehicles with engine displacements over 1.6 liters (from 5% to 7.5%). During 2017, sales have been 28.2 million, up 0.9%.

However, in 2018, new light-vehicle sales have progressively lost steam, following the deceleration of the domestic consumer demand. Indeed, The market interrupted the positive trend of recent years losing for the first time since the ’90s and closing 2018 with 27.5 million units sold (-3.7%). In 2019 the Full-year ended at 25.7 million, down 6.5% from the previous year

After starting the year negatively (-18.8%), the market quickly collapsed in February as the virus started spreading well before any other country. The sharpest drop in sales this year was in fact February when sales declined by 77.3% due to heavy restrictions. The market recovered quickly and started growing again in May (+6%).

The second half of the year has been entirely positive, in fact, every month reported positive sales, with July (+10.1%), October (+11.3%) and November (+13.5%) up in double-digits.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2020 have been 24.730.045, reporting a decline of 4.1% compared to 2019.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Volkswagen (-16.2%) lost 1.5% market share and registered the worst performance in the leaderboard, followed by Honda (+4.7%), which gained 0.6% share. Toyota gained 0.7% share, increasing sales by 7.7%.  Nissan reached 4th place while losing 4.1%, followed by ChangAn -up 1 spot- which gained 4.4%.

Geely fell in 6th place by losing 6.8%, followed by Wuling (+7.9%) and Buick which gained 7% sales. Closing the leaderboard we have Mercedes -up 2 spots- reporting the best performance in the leaderboard by gaining 10% and Dongfeng -down 1 spot-, losing 7.4%.

The most sold vehicle this year has been the Nissan Sylphy (+15.2%) with 542.725 units sold and jumped 1 spot, followed by the Wuling Mini Truck, which gained 14.2% registering 477.569 new sales this year. The Volkswagen Lavida (-21.3%) closes the podium by falling 2 spots and reports 419.793 new units sold.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Sweden Best selling cars in 2019 reported a new leader, the Volvo S/V60, which reached a peak of 6.7% of market share, while the S/V90 declined sharply. Impressive performances scored by the Kia Niro and the Kia Cee’d, holding respectively 2.3% and 1.8%.

In the Swedish market, 72% of share is held by the top 50 models while the top 100 represents 90%. In recent years, the leadership has frequently changed, and in 2019 we had a new market leader.

Indeed, the Volvo S/V60 reached the top of the ranking, with a peak of 6.7% of market share, soaring at 41.2%. Behind, Volvo held another model, the Volvo S/V90, which lost almost 3 points of share from 2018, crumbling down 39.6%.

In third place, the Volkswagen Golf, which has declined from 9.4% in 2010 to 4.1%, followed by the Volvo XC60 and the Volkswagen Tiguan, holding respectively 3.4% and 2.6%.

Behind, the Kia Niro jumped in 7th place after – up 3 spots from the previous year – soaring 45.9%, followed by the Volvo XC40, the fast-growing Kia Cee’d and the Nissan Qashqai.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top 50 models.

Economic Environment

Chinese economic growth momentum remains weak. Industrial production was subdued in October, as the trade war with the U.S eroded manufacturing activities. This trend is expected to continue in the coming months as corroborated by a new drop in exports in November.

Moreover, mounting economic uncertainty is postponing investment plans, especially among foreign firms.

Meanwhile, on 13 December, President Trump agreed to a limited trade deal with China, effectively barring a fresh round of tariffs due on 15 December. As part of the deal, U.S. officials stated that China will purchase more U.S. agricultural products, while the U.S. will remove some existing tariffs in return.

Market Trend

Chinese domestic vehicles market has reduced the growing speed since 2016, after having achieved the 30% of global sales. The future evolution is clearly driven more by real solution regarding the two main issues created by the last decade market boom, pollution and traffic congestion.

Chinese government has shifted its attention from total volume to engine mix and is progressively creating incentives to small and low emission vehicles, while supporting investment in the AFVs, mainly electric. In this direction, in January 2017 it has been increased the duties for vehicles with engines displacements over 1.6 liter (from 5% to 7.5%). During the 2017, sales have been 28.2 million, up 0.9%.

The Chinese government announced on 22 May 2018 that the customs duty for CBUs had to be reduced from 25% or 20% to 15% from 1 July 2018, and that the duty for auto parts were being cut simultaneously to 6%. This adjustment means that Passenger Vehicles (PVs) had been taxed at 15% since last July, instead of the previous 25%.

However, in the 2018, new light vehicles sales (including both domestic produced and import) have progressively lost steam, following the deceleration of the domestic consumer demand. Indeed, The market interrupted the positive trend of recent years losing for the first time since ’90s and closing the 2018 with 27.5 million units sold (-3.7%).

In 2019, according to the data released by the Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the market worsened. Indeed, the Full-year ended at 25.5 million, down 7.2% from the previous year.

In the competitive arena, Volkswagen held the crown with 12.2% of market share, thanks also to the Lavida, which is currently the country’s best-selling car. With almost half of Volkswagen’s share, Honda, in second position, ended at 6.3%.

Toyota – overtaking Geely – takes the third position, improving 8.8% from the previous year. Geely – ending at 5% of market share – declined by 7.6%.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models