Market Trend and Outlook

Myanmar’s vehicle market in July 2023 grows 36.9%, with new sales at 1,192. YTD figures at 7,064 are up 6.3% from the previous year.

Looking at cumulative data up to July 2023 brand-wise, this year the leader is still Suzuki with 22.0% market share and a 3.2% year-on-year loss in sales. Toyota follows in second, jumping 3 spots with a 154.5% boom from the prior year, in front of BAIC -down 1 spot- with an 40.7% loss in volume.

Medium-Term Market Trend

Myanmar’s vehicle market has reported an overall growth in the last decade, surging from 2,800 sales in 2010 to 4,718 by the end of 2016. In this period the most significant fluctuations in yearly volume happened in 2015 when the market boomed 50.5% and in 2016 when in fell 13.7%. Both in 2017 and 2018 the market grew more than 100% with new registrations reaching, in 2019, the current all-time high of 21,916 light vehicles.

The covid-19 pandemic arrived in 2020 and caused the market to subsequently fall 19.2% back down to 17,711 sales.

The worst year for Myanmar’s vehicle market was 2021, the same year in which the coup d’état occurred. In fact, yearly volume collapsed 52.3% to 8,442. In 2022 sales surged back up above the 10k mark to 13,409 (+58.8%).

Market Trend and Outlook

Myanmar’s vehicle market in 2022 totaled 13,262 sales, a 60.2% increase from the previous year.In fact,  December reported the 11th consecutive positive month, with 1,527 new registrations (+166.5%).

Looking at cumulative data from 2022 brand-wise, this year the leader is still Suzuki with 23.1% market share and a 63.1% year-on-year growth in sales. BAIC follows in second, jumping 6 spots with a 276.6% boom in yearly volume, in front of Toyota -down 1 spot- with an 11.8% increase in new registrations.

Medium-Term Market Trend

Myanmar’s vehicle market has reported an overall growth in the last decade, surging from 2,800 sales in 2010 to 4,718 by the end of 2016. In this period the most significant fluctuations in yearly volume happened in 2015 when the market boomed 50.5% and in 2016 when in fell 13.7%. Both in 2017 and 2018 the market grew more than 100% with new registrations reaching, in 2019, the current all-time high of 21,916 light vehicles.

The covid-19 pandemic arrived in 2020 and caused the market to subsequently fall 19.2% back down to 17,711 sales.

The worst year for Myanmar’s vehicle market was 2021, the same year in which the coup d’état occurred. In fact, yearly volume collapsed 52.3% to 8,442. In 2022 sales surged back up above the 10k mark to 13,409 (+58.8%).

Economic Environment

Prospects were dim in H2. The manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory, suggesting a weak industrial sector, while imports were down on 2020, hinting at tepid spending. That said, momentum likely improved toward the end of the year as Covid-19 cases fell from July’s peak and the currency recovered some earlier losses, with the PMI moving close to growth in December.

Turning to the new year, armed conflict continues, and a recent massacre of civilians by the army and the sentencing of former leader Suu Kyi to prison threaten further Western sanctions. In addition, a new internet tax effective from January threatens economic damage, with a recent estimate suggesting internet outages in 2021 already cost the country USD 2.8 billion. More positively, the RCEP trade deal came into force and the EU lifted rice tariffs in January, which should boost the external sector somewhat.

Market Trend

Myanmar’s car market this year fell sharply all year, especially after Q2.

The reduction of import fee on new vehicles and the barrier to extra ASEAN used vehicles import, gave more competitiveness to the new models and data on new vehicles registrations become almost positive, with the full year 2018 sales boomed at the all-time record of 18.500 units, sixth time more than in 2013.

The growth was driven by the fast growth of the new local industry with the availability of locally made models offered at an affordable price, with great success for Ford (Ranger and Everest) and Suzuki (Ertiga, Carry, Ciaz).

Following the recent years of rapid growth, in 2019 the market struggled for the first three quarters, but the strong demand in Q4 allowed a recovery with final figures up 5.6% at 19.537, the new all-time record.

Sales in 2020 have been influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, impacting all sectors. In fact, 15.721 units have been sold, reporting a decline of 19.5%.

The market started the new year negatively, in fact, sales fell 21.6% with 3,113 units were sold, while in Q2 sales dropped 82.8% with only 545 units sold.

In Q3 sales remained down 89.1% with 659 units sold, and did not improve much in Q4 when 691 units were sold (-72.8%).

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2021 have been 5,008, reporting a 68.1% decrease compared to 2020.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Suzuki (-82.5%) lost an impressive 4.5% market share, followed by Toyota (-74.3%), which gained 4% share. Ford (-63%) reached 4th place and gained 6.6% market share.

The most sold model in the country is the Suzuki Swift, which lost 37.1%, holding 14.4% share.

Economic Environment

After activity took a likely severe hit in H1 amid the health crisis, the economic panorama remains bleak in H2, particularly in Q4, amid soaring Covid-19 infections.

Following September’s dive, the manufacturing PMI slid further into contractionary territory in October—marking the worst reading since April—with output and new orders declining at a record pace.

On a brighter note, on 8 November, Japan approved a low market rate loan to Myanmar worth JPY 42.8 billion (about USD 414 million) for infrastructure projects and financing businesses.

The economy is expected to grow at the slowest pace on record this year before growth picks up solidly in 2021 on the back of strengthening clothing and natural gas exports and stable agricultural production. However, ongoing political tensions and elevated uncertainty over the trajectory of the pandemic cloud the outlook.

Market Trend

The Myanmar car market has been hit in 2020 by the world-wide COVID-19 pandemic and by the consequent drop in tourism, which has impacted sales significantly.

The reduction of import fee on new vehicles and the barrier to extra ASEAN used vehicles import, gave more competitiveness to the new models and data on new vehicles registrations become almost positive, with the full year 2018 sales boomed at the all-time record of 18.500 units, sixth time more than in 2013.

The growth was driven by the fast growth of the new local industry with the availability of locally made models offered at an affordable price, with great success for Ford (Ranger and Everest) and Suzuki (Ertiga, Carry, Ciaz).

Following the recent years of rapid growth, in 2019 the market struggled for the first three quarters, but the strong demand in Q4 allowed a recovery with final figures up 5.6% at 19.537, the new all-time record.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2020 have been 15.721, reporting a decline of 19.5% compared to 2019.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Suzuki (-49.5%) lost an impressive 11.4% market share, followed by Toyota (-35.3%), which lost only 0.1% share. Nissan (-27.8%) remained third and gained 0.9% market share.

The most sold model in the country remains the Suzuki Ertiga with 1.963 sales (-57%), holding 12.9% share.

Economic Environment

Myanmar’s economic growth was stable in the first six months of the new fiscal year (which now runs from 1 October to 30 September) from the interim period that ran from April to September last year, according to recently released data. A rebound in the agricultural sector supported the economy, whereas growth in the industrial sector and the services and trade sector moderated, likely hit by softer growth in manufacturing output amid a more uncertain global backdrop.

Turning to the second half of the fiscal year, a rebound seems to be on the cards for the manufacturing sector as the sector’s PMI averaged higher than in H1. Yet the erratic international backdrop and weakened world trade should have dragged on the external sector, limiting the overall expansion.

Market Trend

Myanmar vehicles market is under the positive effect of the new import rules introduction aiming to penalize the import of obsolete pre-owned vehicles and to support local distribution, responsible to provide appropriate service and vehicles maintenance.

Indeed so far the most of the circulating park has been fueled by the import of used vehicles, mainly from Japan and while this models have a more accessible price for a population still with a low purchase power, they had low emission and safety standard and high maintenance cost. Pushed by local representative of importers and manufacturers, in mid 2018 the government have opened a way to protect their business and investment, while keeping CO2 emission under control and vehicles maintenance cost acceptable.

The reduction of import fee on new vehicles and the barrier to extra ASEAN used vehicles import, gave more competitiveness to the new models and data on new vehicles registrations become almost positive, with the full year 2018 sales boomed at the all-time record of 18.500 units, sixth time more than in the 2013.

The growth was driven by the fast growth of the new local industry with the availability of local made models offered at affordable price, with great success for Ford (Ranger and Everest) and Suzuki (Ertiga, Carry, Ciaz).

Following the recent years of rapid growth, in 2019 the market struggled for the first three quarter, but the strong demand in Q4 allowed a recovery with final figures up 3.1% at 19.136, the new all-time record.

Suzuki dominates the market having been the first to open a local manufacturing plant and actually controls near 50% of the market, followed by Toyota and Nissan.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for top Brands

Economic Environment

The manufacturing sector ended 2018 on a strong footing, with the PMI rising to a seven-month high in December thanks to strong output and new orders growth. As a result, employment in the sector posted its first gains since June, leading to a reduction in capacity constraints and backlogs of work. Output expectations, however, remained underwhelming despite a boost in sentiment due to increasing new business orders.

Economic growth should pick up this year, partly owing to robust regional activity. However, persistent large twin deficits, the potential loss of preferential market access to the EU and conflict in the Rakhine region pose downside risks. The panel sees growth at 6.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.2% in 2020.

Market Trend

Myanmar vehicles market is under the effects of the introduction of new rules aiming to progressively change origin of circulating car park, actually generated mainly by the import of used vehicles from Japan, starting up a local industry of small, modern, low consumption-low emission vehicles.

As reported in the previous post on this country, a key decision taken by the government was to ban the import of right-hand-drive vehicles and after one-and-half year of “recommended policy” this become a rule since July 2018.

The effect of this law is sharp for Japanese brands and has already drastically reduced the import of used vehicles. Traders had been forced to change their suppliers searching for vehicles sourced from others ASEAN countries, losing the most of the economic advantage so far found in import from Japan.

Becoming more competitive in terms of price, the new vehicles sector finally have full attention of local consumers and following the steady expansion shown in the recent years, in the 2018 the market really boomed.

The growth is driven by the fast growing of the new local industry with the availability of local made models offered at affordable price, with great success for Ford (Ranger and Everest) and Suzuki (Ertiga, Carry, Ciaz).

The 2018 ended with sales at the new record of 11.882 units, up a roaring 71.6%

Market	Sales 2014	Sales 2015	Sales 2016	Sales 2017	Sales 2018	'+/- 2018
Car+LCV	4.077	6.165	5.288	6.924	11.882	71,6%

The competitive landscape has deeply changed in the 2018 with Ford becoming the new market leader, having sold 1.995 units (+191.2%) ahead of Suzuki and Nissan while Toyota dropped in 4th place.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for top Brands

Myanmar economy performed well despite the humanitarian crisis. Investors and local businesses have, however, lost confidence in the government’s ability to deliver needed reforms: Myanmar remains one of the least attractive countries in the region for investment.

The National League for Democracy-led government focused on stabilizing government finances and inflation but failed to make real progress outside of those areas. However, the new Myanmar Companies Act will come into effect on 1 August: It is a major transformative step for the economy and should lead to greater inflows of foreign capital.

Myanmar, long known as a used-car paradise, is undergoing a drastic change in its automobile industry as the government tries to cultivate local production by restricting second-hand imports.

An estimated 120,000 used vehicles were imported from Japan in 2016. From January 2017, imports of right-hand-drive vehicles has been banned in principle and only those built between 2011 and 2014 are qualified for an exemption in exchange for certificates showing the scrapping of older cars.

However, it remains unclear whether restricting used-car imports will boost the new-automobile segment, which has annual sales of just 6,000 units.

New vehicles are 50% to 200% pricier than pre-owned vehicles and citizens current purchase power is still quite low to afford the cost of a new vehicle. In addition, Myanmar has no concentration of parts suppliers, making production less cost-efficient as many materials must be imported.

New vehicles market is steady growing since years and annual volume increased from 3.096 units in the 2012 to 6.981 in the 2017 and is projected above 8.000 in the 2018.

However, demand will gradually shift to new cars booming the market in the next years and attracting OEMs to start local production.

Suzuki Motor has capacity to build 2.700 units a year and sells about 1.000 units in the country, including its Ertiga minivan and Carry small truck and the Ciaz sedan. A new plant is actually under construction to raise annual production to 10.000 units in 2018.

RMA Group, in partnership with Capital Manufacturing Limited (CML) opened a new Ford Assembly Plant in Yangon, which was inaugurated at an official launch ceremony on July 21st 2017. The plant currently assembles the Ford Ranger and Ford Everest with a production capacity of 6.000 vehicles and a potential for semi-auto production capacity of 30.000 vehicles. Suzuki has been the first to start-up local production with the popular Ertiga, the small Ciaz and the commercial vehicle Carry.

At brand-wise, the leader, Toyota has sold 1.385 units (+4.8% ) followed by Suzuki with 1.015 sales (+5.5%) and Ford with 496 (+24%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for top Brands

In 2016, Myanmar economic activity was likely not as strong as expected earlier in the year due to floods and tycoons that hit agricultural output and mineral extraction. Moreover, low commodity prices for most of the year and weak external demand continued to drag on exports. Additionally, the slowdown in FDI is weighing on Myanmar’s economy. Investors’ appetites have been curbed due to the delay of long-awaited new investment regulations and growing concerns about human-rights abuses.

The development of the automotive sector, together with the development of road infrastructures is crucial in the path for emerging the country from poverty, but the way is long and the government should take more convinced step in this way.

The opportunity to produce locally can be taken by several car manufacturers but they should be protected and considered the wealthy alternative to the import of obsolete, high polluting vehicles, still responsible for near 90% of annual vehicles sales.

Indeed the government has introduced duties to penalize used vehicles import, but the category is claiming obtaining some success, just in the moment when the first and totally new plant for new vehicles is ready to produce the first local made car.

Indeed, Suzuki built this plant last year aiming to produce the Ertiga, the Ciaz and the small van Carry.

In the 2016 the domestic new vehicles market hit again the record with sales up 22%, at 7.767 (including commercials) a second good step after the +70.6% reported in the previous year.

The leader, Toyota grew only 3% and risks to be overtaken during the 2017 by the emerging Suzuki, second with sales up 119%. Third was Ford, up 10%.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for top Brands

Rank 2016	Rank 2015	BRAND	Sales 2016	Sales 2015	Variation 2016	Share 2016	Share 2015
1	1	Toyota	1.596	1.547	3,2%	20,5%	24,3%
2	2	Suzuki	1.251	569	119,9%	16,1%	8,9%
3	3	Ford	546	494	10,5%	7,0%	7,8%
4	4	Hyundai	493	492	0,2%	6,3%	7,7%
5	13	Mazda	463	179	158,4%	6,0%	2,8%
6	6	Chery	286	341	-16,1%	3,7%	5,4%
7	7	Chevrolet	278	299	-7,0%	3,6%	4,7%
8	10	Jinbei	258	251	2,8%	3,3%	3,9%
9	11	Dongfeng	255	221	15,4%	3,3%	3,5%
10	12	Lifan	244	203	20,2%	3,1%	3,2%

Economic Outlook

Myanmar’s economy is expected to show strong growth for 2015 and will continue to benefit from the implementation of reforms. On 6 January, the Central Bank launched a new clearing and settlement system, which aims to improve efficiency in monetary transactions.

The country’s underdeveloped financial sector is gradually building the infrastructure required for the rapidly growing economy and represents a massive step forward for Myanmar’s largely cash-based economy. The new system also paves the way for the development of functioning and efficient capital markets.

Looking forward, Myanmar’s economic prospects remain positive due to the economic reforms that are likely to occur under the administration of the new government. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to grow 8.0% in 2016, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2017, the panel projects growth of 8.1%.

Market Outlook

According to data released by the Road Transport Administration Bureau, during the 2015 the new vehicles market in the country started its development taking more space in the local consumer’s spending still focused on imported pre-owned vehicles.

While the extremely low pro capita income is limiting the car passengers demand, the rapid development of the economy with GDP speed in the range of 8-10% is sustaining the growth of commercial vehicles segment.

In the 2015 total new vehicles sales had been 6.362, up 70.6% from the previous year with car passenger’s segment at 2.806 (+42.2%) and commercial vehicles at 3.556 (+102.4%).

The best seller was Toyota, first time over the 1.000 units in a year, followed by Suzuki with 569 vehicles and Ford with 494.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for top Brands