Market Trend and Outlook

Indonesia’s economy was expected to grow by 5.0% in 2023 as domestic demand took over from commodity exports as the driver of growth. This being said the economy undershot market expectations and grew at the slowest pace in two years in Q3 on cooling domestic demand: Public spending swung into contraction and private consumption growth cooled, outweighing a stronger expansion in fixed investment.

Looking at the Indonesian Vehicle Market we can observe this loss in momentum, with sales in October 2023 falling for the 4th consecutive month after growing 4.3% in June, with new registrations at 80,370 (-13.9%). YTD figures at 835,123 are down 1.9% from the prior year.

Looking at cumulative data up to October 2023 brand-wise, the leader is still Toyota with 273,820 sales (-1.1%), followed by Daihatsu with 161,650 (+2.4%), Honda with 119,917 sales (+12.1%) and Suzuki with 66,530 sales (-7.9%).

Mitsubishi falls 1 spot into 5th with 64,082 sales (-21.1%), followed by Hyundai -up  2 spots- at 29,537 units sold (+6.0%).

Isuzu maintains 7th with 26,651 sales (-13.0%), in front of Mitsubishi Fuso at 26,453 (-12.1%), Hino in 9th at 23,040 registrations (-5.6%) and Wuling closing the Top 10 with 16,652 sales (-22.7%).

Looking at specific models the Honda Brio becomes the new best seller, rising 1 spot with a 9.8% year-on-year increase in sales, followed by the Daihatsu Sigra up 37.2%.

Medium-Term Market Trend

The market had spent four years in the sky, when, during 2010-2013 the market scored four all-time records in a row, almost doubling volume and not only outpacing the magic 1 million units quota but landing at a 2013 record of 1.22 million vehicles sales, before interrupting the run in 2015 with registrations at 1,031,808 (-14.5%).

Then a new positive pathway was taken ending 2016 at 1,074,000 units (including HCVs and Bus) and keeping a moderate recovery in 2017 as well. In 2018, the market was substantially flat, ending with 1,140,349 units sold. In 2019, the market registered a negative trend, with full-year sales at 1,079,474 (-5.3%).

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic sales fell in 2020. In fact, 582,298 units were sold, reporting a decline of 46.1% compared to 2019.

In 2021 the year started negatively for the Indonesian market, in fact, in Q1 178,451 units have been sold, reporting a 24.5% decrease in sales compared to Q1 2020, while in Q2 sales started growing extremely quickly, reporting a 771% increase in sales with 209,439 units due to the very low volumes in Q2 2020.

In Q3 sales kept rising quickly, gaining 100.6% sales with 212,498 units, and in Q4 sales gained 21.8% with 262,984.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2021 were 863,372, reporting a 48.3% increase compared to 2020.

Sales in 2022 totaled 977,527, a 21.1% increase from the prior year.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Market Trend and Outlook

The Indonesian vehicles market in 2022 totals 977,527 sales, a 21.1% growth from the prior year. The year closed with December growing for the 7th month in a row and reporting 98,049 new registrations (+4.4%).

Looking at the cumulative figures form 2022 brand-wise, the leader is still Toyota with 331,409 sales (+14.1%) followed by Daihatsu with 202,665 (+34.1%) and Honda -up 1 spot- with 131,281 sales (+43.6%) overtaking Mitsubishi with 99,051 sales (-5.1%).

Suzuki and Isuzu maintain 5th and 6th position, respectively with 90,408 (+0.9%) and 36,644 sales (+34.3%).

Hyundai rises into 7th with 31,965 sales , in front of Wuling at 29,991 (+17.0%) and Mercedes in 10th at 6,090 registrations (+49.7%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Market Trend

The Indonesian car market this year recovered very effectively from the 2020 pandemic, and reported  a negative performance only in Q1.

The market had spent four years in the sky, when, during 2010-2013 the market scored four all-time records in a row, almost doubling volume and not only outpacing the magic 1 million units quota but landing at a 2013 record of 1.22 million vehicles sales, before interrupting the run in 2015 with registrations at 1,031,808 (-14.5%).

Then a new positive pathway was taken ending 2016 at 1,074,000 units (including HCVs and Bus) and keeping a moderate recovery in 2017 as well. In 2018, the market was substantially flat, ending with 1,140,349 units sold. In 2019, the market registered a negative trend, with full-year sales at 1,079,474 (-5.3%).

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic sales fell in  2020. In fact, 582,298 units have been sold, reporting a decline of 46.1% compared to 2019.

In 2021 the year started negatively for the Indonesian market, in fact, in Q1 178,451 units have been sold, reporting a 24.5% decrease in sales compared to Q1 2020, while in Q2 sales started growing extremely quickly, reporting a 771% increase in sales with 209,439 units due to the very low volumes in Q2 2020.

In Q3 sales kept rising quickly, gaining 100.6% sales with 212,498 units, and in Q4 sales gained 21.8% with 262,984.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2021 have been 863,372, reporting a 48.3% increase compared to 2020.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Toyota (+59.1%) gained 2.3% market share, followed by Daihatsu (+51.1%), which gained 0.3% share. Mitsubishi gained 2.7% share by gaining 90.6%, while  Honda fell in 4th place and reported a gain of 15%, followed by Suzuki which gained 23.8%.

Mitsubishi Fuso gained 43.2%, followed by Isuzu (+52.8%) and Wuling which reported the best performance on the leaderboard by gaining 151.2%. Closing the leaderboard we have Hino gaining 51.8% and Nissan, which was the only brand to report losses, falling 47.6%.

The most sold vehicle this year is the Toyota Avanza (+75.5%) with 62,741 units sold, followed by the Mitsubishi Xpander, which gained 107.3% registering 54,644 new sales this year. The Toyota Rush (+79%) closes the podium and reports 52,553 new units sold.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Market Trend

The Indonesian car market was hit extremely harshly in 2020 as the global pandemic has impacted sales tremendously. In fact, the fall was so harsh that we recorded the lowest annual volume for the country since 2009.

The market had spent four years in the sky, when, during 2010-2013 the market scored four all-time records in a row, almost doubling volume and not only outpacing the magic 1 million units quota but landing at a 2013 record of 1.22 million vehicles sales, before interrupting the run in 2015 with registrations at 1.031.808 (-14.5%).

Then a new positive pathway was taken ending 2016 at 1.074.000 units (including HCVs and Bus) and keeping a moderate recovery in 2017 as well. In 2018, the market was substantially flat, ending with 1.140.349 units sold. In 2019, the market registered a negative trend, with full-year sales at 1.079.474 (-5.3%).

After starting the year flat (-0.1%) the market registered the only positive month of the year in February (+0.8%). The market started falling in March as the virus struck, in fact, the sharpest drop in sales this year was in May when sales declined by 95.6%. In the following months, the market remained down in double-digits for the entire rest of the year, recovering very slowly.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2020 have been 582.298, reporting a decline of 46.1% compared to 2019.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Toyota (-46.5%) lost 0.7% market share, followed by Daihatsu (-47%), which lost 0.5% share. Honda lost 0.9% share by falling 48.4%, while  Suzuki reached 4th place and reported a loss of 24.9%, followed by Mitsubishi which lost 49.3%.

Mitsubishi Fuso lost 59.9%, followed by Isuzu (-29.5%) and Hino which reported the worst performance on the leaderboard by losing 60.1%. Closing the leaderboard we have Nissan reporting the best performance on the leaderboard this year by growing 5.6% overtaking Wuling, which lost 51%.

The most sold vehicle this year is the Honda Brio (-41.9%) with 40.879 units sold, followed by the Suzuki Carry Pick Up, which lost 34.1% registering 38.072 new sales this year. The Toyota Avanza (-58.6%) closes the podium and reports 35.754 new units sold.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for top 10 Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Economic Environment

Indonesian economy eased marginally in the third quarter according to recent data. Both private and government consumption slowed as the boost from election-related spending ebbed. Moreover, fixed investment growth fell to a three-year low, likely due in part to import controls. However, the contribution from the external sector strengthened, as these same controls led to a sharp fall in imports.

Turning to the fourth quarter, economic activity is likely broadly unchanged, as recent substantial monetary easing should be providing support to the domestic economy. That said, signs from the manufacturing sector are discouraging: The PMI fell to a near four-year low in October amid lower production and new orders. Meanwhile, in the political arena, President Jokowi announced his new cabinet in mid-October.

Economic growth is seen fairly stable next year. While fixed investment is seen picking up on recent tax incentives and greater infrastructure spending, this will be largely offset by a weaker external sector as imports rebound.

Market Trend

Indonesian Vehicles market had spent four years on the sky, when, during the 2010-2013 the market scored four all time records in a row, almost doubling volume and not only outpacing the magic 1 million units quota, but landing at a 2013 record of 1.22 million vehicles (including HCVs) sales, before interrupting the run in 2015 with registrations at 1.031.808 (-14.5%).

Then a new positive pathway was taken ending 2016 at 1.074.000 units (including HCVs and Bus) and keeping a moderate recovery in 2017 as well. In 2018, the market was substantially flat, ending with 1.140.349 units sold.

In 2019, according to data released by the local Association of Car Manufacturers, the market registered a negative trend. Indeed, with full-year sales at 1.066.122 (-6.5%).

In the competitive landscape, the market dominator is Toyota, holding over 35% of share, widening the gap from the followers, Daihatsu and Honda.

Economic Environment

Indonesian economic growth should have performed fairly well in the fourth quarter, likely supported by solid fixed investment and government consumption, although high-frequency indicators paint a nuanced picture. On one hand, tourist arrivals grew at a double-digit pace in October. On the other, growth in retail sales and merchandise exports was soft in the same month, while the manufacturing PMI declined for the third straight month in November and now hovers only slightly above contractionary territory.

Domestic demand should continue to underpin the economy, with private consumption supported by a strong labor market and government consumption likely receiving a boost ahead of elections in April 2019. However, tighter monetary policy, delays to public infrastructure projects and cooling Chinese momentum could drag on the performance, while a possible resurgence of U.S.-China trade tensions poses a downside risk.

Market Trend

Indonesian Vehicles market had spent four years on the sky, when, during the 2010-2013 the market scored four all time records in a row, almost doubling volume and not only outpacing the magic 1 million units quota, but landing at a 2013 record of 1.22 million vehicles (including HCVs) sales, before starting a negative period, with sales declined below the 1 million level in the 2015,

Then a new positive pathway was taken ending the 2016 at 1.074.000 units (including HCVs and Bus) and keeping a moderate recovery in the 2017 as well. According to data released by GAIKINDO, in the 2017 total vehicles sales have been 1.138.000 (+6.0%).

In the 2018 the market improved from the last year. Indeed, registrations closed the year at 1.139.901, growing 7.1%. This is the third consecutive year of gain, with an annual score very close to the 2013 record. Moreover, the market has been characterized by a positive performance throughout all the quarters.

Sales 2014	Sales 2015	Sales 2016	Sales 2017	Sales 2018	'+/- 2018
1.177.387	1.009.031	1.049.697	1.064.262	1.139.901	7,1%

Competitive Arena

At brand wise, Toyota is the 2018 market leader with 354.221 units year to date (-9.9%) followed by Daihatsu with 195.459 (-3.6%) and Honda with 159.988 units (-18.4%).

In fourth place Mitsubishi with 145.332 (+81.4%), pushed by the astonishing success of the new XPander. In fifth place Suzuki with 116.353 (-2.2%) followed by Isuzu with 25.224 (+15.1%).

As Annual Member you can see the Indonesian best-selling car ranking here

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models