Market Trend and Outlook

The Iraqi vehicle market in September 2023 grows for the 8th month this year, with new registrations at 9,228 (+0.2%). YTD figures at 83,464 are up 14.0% from the previous year.

Looking at cumulative data from the first 3 quarters of 2023 brand-wise, the leader becomes Toyota with 22,498 vehicles sold (+3.3%), followed closely by Kia with 19,291 sales (+2.2%).

In third place ranks MG -up 2 spots- with 9,822 new registrations, an 150.9% increase from the prior year. Hyundai follows in 4th with 8,732 sales (+51.6%), in front of Chery at 3,795 (-3.6%), Chevrolet at 3,663  (+0.9%) and Suzuki in 7th – up 2 spots- with 2,570 cumulative sales (+101.1%).

Changan maintains 8th spot with 2,085 sales (+7.7%), followed by GMC -up 3 spots- at 1,611 (+60.1%) and Mitsubishi, closing the top 10 with 1,276 new registrations reported this year (+63.0%). 

Looking at specific models the Kia Frontier remains the best seller despite losing 38.9% in year-on-year sales, followed by the Toyota Hilux, up 7.0%.

Medium-Term Market Trend

The internal war against ISIS and the consequence for the economic and social aspects, pushed down the Iraq automotive industry in 2014-2016, after a period of sustained growth.

The market peaked down in 2016 with sales below the 40K, but since 2017 a long term growth in place.

Indeed in 2020 the pandemic arrival breaked the growth with sales down 16.7%, but it was a temporary stock and since 2021 the market is back on track.

Sales, in fact, in 2022 grew 26.7% to 107,990, the highest level of yearly volume in the last 8 years.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for top 10 Brands and top 10 models.

Market Trend and Outlook

Following a sharp recovery reported in 2021 (+26.7%) the light vehicles market maintains the strong momentum in 2022, totaling 107,990 sales (+24.0%), the highest in 8 years. Indeed, December with 11,892 new registrations posts the 11 consecutive growth of the year (+73.8%).

Looking at cumulative data from 2022 brand-wise, the leader is still Kia with 29,904 vehicles sold this year(-5.2%), followed closely by Toyota which totaled 26,550 sales (+77.9%).

In third place ranks Hyundai with 10,917 new registrations, a 2.0% decrease from the prior year. Chery follows in 4th with 6,600 sales (+23.2%), in front of MG at 5,395 (+69.9%), Chevrolet at 5,128 (+53.6%) and Suzuki -up 15 spots- in 7th with 2,830 cumulative sales (+1535.8%).

Changan rises 2 spots into 8th with 2,824 sales (+73.1%), followed by Jeep at 2,737 (+1.9%) ad BAIC, closing the top 10 with 1,949 new registrations reported this year (+163.0%). 

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for top 10 Brands and top 10 models.

Market Trend

The Iraqi car market this year recovered very effectively, reporting a negative performance only in Q4.

In 2019 the market maintained an impressive growth pace with fast speed taken across all months and Full-year sales closed at 79,980 units (+39.4%).

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic sales significantly decreased in  2020. In fact, sales have been 66,591, reporting a fall of 16.7% compared to 2019.

In 2021 the year started positively for the Iraqi market, in fact, in Q1 18,091 units have been sold, reporting a 9.7% decrease in sales compared to Q1 2020, while in Q2 sales started growing extremely quickly, reporting a 155.8% increase in sales with 21,195 units due to the very low levels of sales experienced in Q2 2020.

In Q3 sales rose 39.6% with 24,640 units, while in Q4 sales started dropping in double-digits (-12.4%) with 21,454 units.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2021 have been 85,380, reporting a 27.6% increase compared to 2020.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Kia (+4.8%) lost 8% market share, followed by Toyota (+22.5%), which lost 0.7% share, and Hyundai which lost 2.9% share, falling 4.4%.  Chery reached 4th place and gained 183%, followed by Chevrolet which rose 97.7%.

MG reached 6th place -up 5 spots- and gained 349.2% registering the best performance in the leaderboard, followed by Nissan (+47.8%) and Jeep (+23.1%). Closing the leaderboard we have Great Wall and ChangAn (+98.9%).

The most sold vehicle this year remains the Kia Frontier (+9.5%) with 15.611 units sold, followed by the Kia Sorento (+1.9%) registering 7,660 new sales this year. The Hyundai Tucson (+18%) closes the podium and reports 7.001 new units sold.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for top 10 Brands and top 10 models.

Market Trend

The Iraqi car market has been hit in 2020 by the world-wide COVID-19 pandemic.

In 2019 the market maintained an impressive growth pace with fast speed taken across all months and Full-year sales closed at 79.980 units (+39.4%).

After starting the year negatively (-20.4%) and recovering immediately in February (+47.7%), the market quickly collapsed in March as the virus struck, followed by the sharpest drop in sales this year, which was in April when sales declined by 72.2%.

The market took a while to recover, remaining down in double-digits until it started growing again in August (+1.1%). In September the recovery was not sustained (-21.3%) but the trend quickly reversed and the entire Q4 registered double-digit growth.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2020 have been 66.591, reporting a decline of 16.7% compared to 2019.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Kia (-1.5%) gained 7% market share, followed by Toyota (+7.2%), which gained 4.1% share, and Hyundai -down 1 spot- which lost 8.2% share, falling 44.8%.  Jeep is in 4th place and lost 16.8%, followed by Nissan which lost 24.1%.

Chevrolet reached 6th place and gained 74.6% registering the best performance in the leaderboard, followed by Chery (-4.7%) and Mitsubishi (-72.9%). Closing the leaderboard we have ChangAn and Iran Khodro (-9.8%) entering the leaderboard by jumping 1 spot.

The most sold vehicle this year remains the Kia Frontier (+22%) with 14.253 units sold, followed by the Kia Sorento (-18.4%) -up 1 spot- registering 7.518 new sales this year. The Hyundai Tucson (-45.8%) closes the podium and reports 5.934 new units sold.

Economic Environment

Iraqi economy slowed in Q3 according to recent data. The all-important oil sector lost steam as output growth ebbed amid a tough base effect from the prior year. Moreover, the non-oil sector also expanded at a weaker pace. Turning to Q4, the economy should have softened further.

Oil production contracted in annual terms in October–November according to EIA data, while widespread protests likely hurt business sentiment and non-oil activity.

On the external front, the recent dramatic escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran poses a significant security risk to Iraq. Taken together, the fragile domestic political panorama and U.S.-Iran tensions will likely dampen activity in the near term.

Market Trend

Iraqi automotive industry in 2019 the market maintained an impressive growth pace with fast speed taken across all months and Full- year sales closed at 80.106 units (+39.4%).

At brand-wise, in 2019 the ranking reported again Kia on top with 30.534 (+9.6%) holding 38.1% of market share.

Several brands have registered huge year on year increases due to the effect of reorganization of distribution activity. Among these, Hyundai and Mitsubishi have shone.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models

Economic Environment

Iraqi economy grew in the third quarter at a meager rate over the same period a year earlier despite strong oil production and elevated prices for the black gold through late September. Oil production picked up noticeably in the quarter, but production moderated in October and November—partly due to bad weather in the Gulf region—which, coupled with plunging oil prices, will have dragged on the economy in the fourth quarter.

Downside risks remain abound. Iraq is a key supplier of oil to China, and a prolonged economic slowdown there would dent Iraq’s economy. Moreover, low oil prices risk Iraq’s postwar recovery and rebuilding efforts. A potential resurgence of armed conflict further clouds the outlook.

Market Trend

Iraqi automotive industry was the second largest in the Middle East – after Iran – before the become field of the war between US and Terrorists, which devastated the country for near 15 years. The market was over the 250k units twenty years ago. Then collapsed falling at few thousand units and then recovered up to 164.545 in the 2010, when peace seemed to have been finally established.

However, the growth of terrorism created again a conflict and vehicles demand dropped again with sales falling down for sixth consecutive years (2010-2016) at a negative peak of 32.731 in the 2016.

Then the market stabilized in the 2017 with a little growth at 39.601 and then, ended the war, in the 2018 a robust recovery started with sales grew up 57.468 units and with positive perspectives for the next years.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for top 10 Brands and top 10 Models

Political unrest remains high in the Kurdish region, as sanctions imposed by Baghdad are still in place. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi claims that the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) must fully nullify the results of the September independence referendum and hand over the border crossing to the federal government before talks can begin. Political unrest is affecting the approval of the 2018 budget.

Iraqi automotive industry has collapsed in the period 2014-2016 losing near two-thirds of the volume.

The end of war to ISIS and a recovery in oil price have supported the market to recovery during the 2017, with sales up at 39.601 (+21.0%) creating ground for a strong acceleration during the 2018. However, rising tensions with Kurdistan region could further hit the economy and the sector.

With a market share of 41.7%, Kia dominates the market and during the year sold 16.500 vehicles (+45.5%). Toyota was second with 6.277 sales (+0.9%) followed by Nissan, protagonist of a strong sales acceleration with 5.390 sales (+65.9%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models

Country Outlook

Although oil exports dropped slightly in February compared to January—due to inclement weather that held back a number of shipments—Iraq is still exporting historically high quantities of oil. Nevertheless, the country’s oil revenues are a fraction of what they were two years ago.

On a recent visit to Germany, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi stated that the revenues have seen an 85% decline over the past two years, pushing the county into a fiscal crisis. The country is in desperate need of cash, not only to cover routine expenditure, but also to finance its ongoing military operations against ISIL.

The government has slashed civil servants’ pay a number of times in the past 12 months, with the latest cut in January. This will add to the factors hampering growth this year, which include ethnic and religious tensions, as well as the deteriorating security situation. Analysts project GDP growth of 3.5% for this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Market Outlook

For the very first time we found data on this market, potentially one of the biggest on the entire middle east.

Fifteen year ago the local domestic market peaked near 200.000 units sales per year dropping to few thousand units at the end of the last decade. The fast recovery shown in the period 2011-2012 was hit, initially, by the deflagrare of war against ISIL, and then, by the economic crisis generated by the sharp drop of oil price and high military expenses, with GDP down 2.9%.

Consequently, in he 2015 he market was reported sharply down from the previous year with total figures at 55.000 units (down 41.0%).

The market is in the hands of three manufacturers holding 81.4% of market share: Kia, Hyundai and Toyota.

In the 2015 the best-selling model was the Kia  Frontier followed by the Toyota Hilux and the Kia Sorento. Pick ups and SUVs cover 95% of the sales.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models