Market Trend and Outlook

The Egyptian vehicle market in September 2023 falls for the 22nd month in a row, with new registrations reaching 3,549 (-77.1%). YTD figures at 42,626 are down 72.2% from the previous year.

Looking at cumulative data up to September 2023 brand-wise, Nissan rises 1 spot into first position with 7,149 sales (-63.4%), followed by Chery at 6,201 (-71.7%) and Chevrolet with 5,192 (-67.2%).

Further down the rankings Renault reports the best performance in the top 10, falling merely 7.5% with 3,221 cumulative new registrations.

Looking at specific models the Nissan Sunny is the best seller despite losing 61.5% in year-on-year volume, followed by the Chevrolet TFR down 75.6% in sales but down 1 spot in the rankings.

Medium-Term Market Trend

Egyptian vehicle sales moved up and down in the past decade. From 2011 to 2013, despite the yearly changes in trend, overall sales fell from 244,328 in 2010 to 207,405 in 2013, with 2011 reporting a 26.7% loss and 2012 a 19.7% growth. In 2014 the market increased by 34.9% up to the current all-time high of 279,779 sales, while in 2015 started a 3 year loss that moved sales to 129,254 by the ed of 2017. In 2018 the market rebounded 41.5% to fall back down in the following year, ending 2019 at 163,383.

Unlike in most countries of the world, the arrival of the pandemic in 2020 caused the Egyptian market to increase by 34.5% reaching 219,687.

The momentum continued into the following year with 2021 closing at 266,348. 2022 interrupted this growth in the Egyptian vehicles market with sales down 32.6% from the prior year at 186,819. A combination of factors are behind the current industry struggle: mainly the disruption in the global supply chain caused by a lack of raw materials, in particular for the production of microchips.

Market Trend and Outlook

The Egyptian vehicle market in 2022 totaled 178,644 new registrations, a 35.3% drop from the prior year. December reported 8,110 sales, the 13th consecutive monthly loss (-64.3%).

Looking at cumulative data from 2022 brand-wise, Chevrolet maintains first position with 24,825 sales (-40.0%), followed by Nissan at 24,013 (-10.1%) and Chery -up 4 spot- with 18,918 (+16.0%).

Suzuki jumps 2 spots into 4th accumulating 18,297 sales (+6.9%), while Toyota moves up a spot into 5th with 14,411 registrations (-43.9%), overtaking MG at 11,359 (-51.9%).

Hyundai falls into 7th spot with 9,958 sales (-60.4%), in front of Kia at 8,068 (-51.0%), Fiat at 5,993 (-56.8%) and BYD -up 2 spots- at 5,349 new registrations (-22.4%).

Market Trend

The Egyptian car market this year recovered effectively from the pandemic crash of 2020 and reported a negative performance only in Q1.

Following two years (2014 and 2015) of high sales volume, in 2016 and 2017, the Egyptian vehicles industry has been buffeted by a devalued currency, spiraling new-vehicle price increases, higher interest rates, and three hikes in fuel prices as the government rolls back fuel subsidies to control budgetary expenditures.

In addition, VAT increased in 2017, and duties for over 2 liters vehicles further increased. The result was an unprecedented fall of demand with 2017 light vehicle sales down at 137,821, losing 36% from the previous year.

Finally, during 2018 the huge pressure on vehicles price has been reduced and the positive economic trend created the mood for recovery. In fact, the market ended the year with 193,000 light vehicle sales. In 2019 the market has been hit again by the price increase and ending the year with a double-digit fall, breaking the recovery. Indeed, Total sales in 2019 have been 171,252, down 11.3%.

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic sales increased in  2020. In fact, sales have been 227,117, reporting an increase of 32.6% compared to 2019.

In 2021 the year started slightly negatively for the Egyptian market, in fact, in Q1 50,800 units have been sold, reporting a 2% decrease in sales compared to Q1 2020, while in Q2 sales started growing quickly, reporting a 86.7% increase in sales with 77,589 units sold due to the incredibly low sales volume registered in Q2 2020.

In Q3 sales kept growing, gaining 17.9% sales with 68,364 units, while in Q4 sales rose only 1.6% with 68,364 units sold.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2021 have been 266,348, reporting a 21.2% increase compared to 2020.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Chevrolet (+27.3%) gained 1.2% market share, followed by Toyota (+55.9%), which gained 3.6% share and reported the best performance on the leaderboard. Hyundai -up 1 spot- gained 0.4% share, gaining 24.4%.  Nissan fell in 4th place (+12.7%), followed by Fiat -up 1 spot- which gained 19.5%.

Kia -up 1 spot- grew 31.3%, followed by Chery which gained 29.7% and Peugeot which rose 2 spots and gained 38.1% sales. Closing the leaderboard we have Opel gaining 12.5% and Renault -down 5 spot- which reported the worst performance, dropping 46.5%.

The most sold vehicle this year has been the Chevrolet TFR (+49.2%) with 30,895 units sold, followed by the Toyota Corolla, which gained 39.5% registering 19,448 new sales this year. The Fiat Tipo (+25%) closes the podium and reports 15,658 new units sold.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for the top 10 Brands and top 10 Models.

Economic Environment

Economic activity appears to have improved somewhat in recent months, following a 1.7% year-on-year contraction in Q2 (Q1: +5.0% YoY). PMI data for September indicated the first overall increase in non-oil private sector activity in 14 months, driven by an uptick in consumer demand.

Meanwhile, relatively low new Covid-19 cases through October and continued public spending initiatives bode well for activity in Q4. In other news, regional tensions have heightened regarding Ethiopia’s under-construction dam on the Nile river, with talks resuming in late October in an attempt to break the impasse over the operation and control of all-important water flows.

In politics, polls opened on 24 October for the first of multiple rounds of voting in parliamentary elections. No significant shift in the composition is expected, with the legislative body broadly lacking the powers to balance the authority of the president.

Market Trend

The Egyptian car market grew incredibly in 2020 despite the world-wide COVID-19 pandemic due to deflation of the local currency.

Following two years (2014 and 2015) of high sales volume, in 2016 and 2017, the Egyptian vehicles industry has been buffeted by a devalued currency, spiraling new-vehicle price increases, higher interest rates, and three hikes in fuel prices as the government rolls back fuel subsidies to control budgetary expenditures.

In addition, VAT increased in 2017, and duties for over 2 liters vehicles further increased. The result was an unprecedented fall of demand with 2017 light vehicle sales down at 137.821, losing 36% from the previous year.

Finally, during 2018 the huge pressure on vehicles price has been reduced and the positive economic trend created the mood for recovery. In fact, the market ended the year with 193.000 light vehicle sales. In 2019 the market has been hit again by the price increase and ending the year with a double-digit fall, breaking the recovery. Indeed, Total sales in 2019 have been 171.252, down 11.3%.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2020 have been 227.117, reporting a 32.6% increase in sales compared to 2019.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Chevrolet (+38.1%) gained 0.8% market share, followed by Toyota (+87.3%)-up 3 spots-, which gained 3% share. Nissan -down 1 spot- lost 4.4% share, falling 8.4%.  Hyundai fell in 4th place (+1.9%), followed by Renault -down 1 spot- which reported the worst performance on the leaderboard by falling 10.9%.

MG -up 4 spots- grew 207.3%, followed by Fiat which reported the best performance by growing 228.3 -up 5 spots-  and Kia which fell 2 spots and gained 28.6% sales. Closing the leaderboard we have Chery -down 2 spots- gaining 38% and Opel -down 1 spot- gaining 68.5%.

The most sold vehicle this year has been the Chevrolet TFR (+61.9%) with 32.919 units sold, followed by the Toyota Corolla, which gained 114.6% registering 14.318 new sales this year. The Nissan Sunny (+0.5%) closes the podium and reports 13.365 new units sold.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for the top 10 Brands and top 10 Models.

Economic Environment

Egyptian economic growth slowed for the second consecutive quarter in Q2 FY 2020, which ran from October to December, as suggested by a decrease in the quarter’s non-oil private sector PMI reading compared to the previous quarter.

More positively, international reserves, which have been climbing since Egypt began the three-year IMF program in 2016, rose to USD 45.4 billion in December, the highest reading in at least a decade-and-a-half.

In other news, the government announced in December that several international energy companies, including Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell, had been granted exploration rights in Egyptian waters, in a bid to boost the energy sector.

Market Trend

Following two years (2014 and 2015) of high sales volume, in 2016 and 2017, the Egyptian vehicles industry has been buffeted by a devalued currency, spiraling new-vehicle price increases, higher interest rates, and three hikes in fuel prices as the government rolls back fuel subsidies to control budgetary expenditures.

In addition, VAT increased in 2017 and duties for over 2 liters vehicles further increased.

The result was an unprecedented fall of demand with 2017 light vehicles sales down at 137.821, losing 36% from the previous year.

Finally during the 2018 the huge pressure on vehicles price has been reduced and the positive economic trend created the mood for a recovery. In fact, according to data released by the local Association of Car Manufacturers, the market ended the year with 193.000 light vehicles sales.

In 2019 the market has been hit again by the price increase and ending the year with a double-digit fall, breaking the recovery. Indeed, Total sales in 2019 have been 178.699, down 12.9%.

In the competitive landscape, two brands fight every year for the leadership and in the 2019 Chevrolet is prevailed over Hyundai with a large gap. In 2019, these two brands achieved a combined share of 36.3% and, while adding the score reported for the third, Nissan, 50% of the market was concentrated in 3 players.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

Economic Environment

The economy appears to have had some growing pains in the second quarter of fiscal year 2019—which covered October to December 2018—following a small slowdown in the first quarter. The non-oil private sector was stuck in contractionary territory in November for the third consecutive month, according to survey data.

The continued downturn in the sector was led by a decline in output and new orders, although both declines were less pronounced than in October.

This fiscal year, economic growth should be robust thanks to higher government investment spending, rising natural gas production and an improving regulatory environment. However, despite reducing in recent years, fiscal imbalances continue to weigh on economic prospects.

Market Trend

Following two years (2014 and 2015) of high sales volume, in 2016 and 2017, the Egyptian vehicles industry has been buffeted by a devalued currency, spiraling new-vehicle price increases, higher interest rates, and three hikes in fuel prices as the government rolls back fuel subsidies to control budgetary expenditures.

In addition, VAT increased in 2017 and duties for over 2 liters vehicles further increased. The result was an unprecedented fall of demand with total vehicles (cars and trucks) sales down at 134.885 units at the end of 2017, down 36.8% from the previous year and well below the record of 284.000 units touched in the 2015.

Finally during the 2018 the 2018 the huge pressure on vehicles price has been reduced and the positive economic trend created the mood for a recovery and indeed the recovery was robust.

According to data released by the local Association of Car Manufacturers, the market ended the year with 174.318 total vehicles sales, a robust +24.2%, despite fuel prices have been raised in June.

The automotive industry is crucial in the Egyptian economic environment and the government moved actively to recover lost steps and had been able to agree with Mercedes to come back and restart the local production, after three years of absence.

At brand-wise, same brands scored outstanding recovery in the year like the three on the podium (in light vehicles market). Indeed Hyundai was the best seller with 42.480 (+94%) followed by Nissan with 31.860 sales (+46.1%) and Renault with 20.340 (+117.2%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

Egyptian economy continues to suffer from the immediate effects of the liberalization of the pound and the arduous fiscal reform program the government has embarked on. A still bleak, albeit gradually improving PMI reading in January exposes the hardships businesses in Egypt are dealing with, including soaring costs of raw materials and subdued demand on the back of skyrocketing inflation.

This, however, has not deterred the Egyptian government from pushing ahead with its reform-oriented agenda. Egypt’s compliance with many of the toughest reforms included in the IMF’s three-year plan has prompted a hasty return of many foreign investors to the country.

Following two years (2014 and 2015) of high sales volume, in the 2016 the domestic vehicles market dropped down, hit by the impressive increase in key on hand price fo all vehicles. The demand was frozen and the market fell down.

Indeed, according to the data released AMIC total sales had been 201.621, down a sharp 25.7%, mainly as effect of car passenger’s segment decline.

In the World’s ranking, Egypt fell in 41st place, down 6 spots from the previous year.

Chevrolet has lost a sharp 28.7%, still keeping the leadership while with a narrow gap over the second, Hyundai (-6.7%) approaching to surpass. In third the other strong challengers, Nissan, down only 4.8%.

The increase of VAT rate on all goods (including vehicles) with higher rate for over 2.0 HPs, will further hurt the market in the 2017.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

Economic Outlook

The release of GDP figures for FY 2014/2015 provided positive news for the Egyptian economy. GDP expanded 4.2%, which was double the 2.1% expansion in FY 2013/2014 and marked the strongest growth in five years. Recent indicators point to a more difficult situation, however, as in January the PMI remained in contraction territory for the fourth consecutive month.

Faced with currency shortages, which are supporting inflationary pressures, weakening real incomes and limiting the ability to move ahead with spending projects, Egyptian authorities are implementing measures to reduce the import bill.

At the end of 2015, the Central Bank tightened controls to plug loopholes that allowed importers to dodge customs tariffs.

At the beginning of February, the government raised taxes on a range of imported goods, in particular luxury items. Aid inflows are also expected help improve Egypt’s external position and release pressure on international reserves.

At the beginning of January, Egypt received USD 1 billion in cash deposits from China, which added to a total of around USD 11 billion in commitments from the World Bank and Saudi Arabia that were announced in late 2015.

Market Outlook

Posting the fifth decline in a row, December ended the 2015 with a -9.1% with 22.020 sales.

The full year figures, according to data released by the Egyptian Automotive Marketing Information Council (AMIC), report a total light vehicles market of 262.071 units, down 4.3% from the previous year, second best volume ever.

According to local observers, perspectives for the 2016 are positive with the market foreseen up in the range +5 – +8%, probably at the new all-time record.

The market leader, Chevrolet, reported a 2.9% decline at 52.265 units, better than the immediate followers. Indeed Hyundai was second with 43.438 sales (-4.6%), Nissan third with 23.932 (-12.7%) and Toyota fourth with 23.003 (-12.3%).

The winner of the year was Renault, booming sales 73.8% and gaining 3 spots to advance in 5th place with a record volume of 20.002.

Others remarkable performance had been scored by Ford (+148%) and Mazda (+133.8%).

The LCV Chevrolet TFR confirmed the leadership with 25.191 units (+1.2%) ahead of the Hyundai Verna with 21.260 units (-12.4%) and the booming Nissan Sunny with 14.064 (-22.6%).

Renault Logan was 4th with sales up 89.9% while Renault Sandero was 14th with sales up 125.7%. To be mentioned the Mitsubishi Lancer in seventh place, up 69%

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands