]]> Nigeria’s vehicle market in September 2023 grows for the 6th month in a row after an 3 negative months, with 1,067 new sales (+18.3%). YTD figures at 9,389 are up 19.8% from the prior year.

Market Trend and Outlook

The Nigerian vehicle market in September 2023 grows for the 6th month in a row following 3 negative months, with 1,067 new registrations (+18.3%). YTD figures at 9,389 are up 19.8% from the previous year. 

Looking at cumulative data up to September 2023 brand-wise, the leader Toyota reports a 14.1% increase in sales while holding 16.8% market share, followed by Innoson which grew 5 spots in the rankings.

Medium-Term Market Trend

Until 2014 the market grew steady, eventually hitting the 57,000 units record for new vehicles. At the end of that year, the Nigerian Automotive Industry Development Plan was created matching the Brazilian’s one in which the government rather than “invite” to produce locally, “forced” car-makers to appoint local facilities wishing to be part of the “party”.

In the first two following years, the government released almost 30 licenses, while the domestic market collapsed falling down to 11,743 units in 2017, due to the deep economic crisis generated by the fall in oil price and the poor domestic demand.

In 2018 the market started to recover, considering the level was near 20% of the 2014 level. Sales grew up at 19,545 and the first group of car manufacturers started to open small local plants to supply the domestic market. In 2019 the light vehicles market was back in difficulties, following the fast recovery shown in the previous year and sales declined 40.3% at 11,663 units, the second-worst level in the last decade.

The Nigerian new light vehicles market seems unable to recover after the series of negative facts which impacted severely the market in the last years. In 2020, the modest growth of the economy was killed by the combined effects of strict social distancing measures and widespread travel restrictions due to covid19 and the fall of oil prices in the international market.

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fall in oil prices sales significantly decreased in  2020. In fact, sales have been 7,451, reporting a fall of 36.1% compared to 2019.

In 2021 the year started negatively for the Nigerian market, in fact, in Q1 2,600 units have been sold, reporting a 32.2% decrease in sales compared to Q1 2020, while in Q2 sales started growing again, reporting a 339.6% increase with 2,800 units sold.

In Q3 2,658 units ere sold, reporting a 24.9% growth, and in Q4 the market increased again, rising 116.8% with 2,385 units.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2021 have been 10,443, reporting a 35.7% increase compared to 2020.

In 2022 the market maintained the momentum from the year before and grew another 5.2% to 10,594 sales.

]]> Nigeria’s vehicle market in 2022 totaled 10,302 sales, a 2.4% increase from the prior year and the second consecutive yearly growth. In December sales rose 11.2%, the 8th consecutive positive month.

Market Trend and Outlook

The Nigerian vehicle market in 2022 totaled 10,302 sales, a 5.2% increase from the prior year and the second consecutive yearly growth. In December sales rose 11.2%, the 8th consecutive positive month.

Looking at cumulative data from 2022 brand-wise, the leader Toyota reports a 3.5% increase in sales YTD while holding 17.9% market share, followed by Hyundai which gained 24.4%.

]]> Nigeria’s Auto market in 2021 gains 35.6% with 10,443 sales, reporting a double-digit drop only in Q1 and large growth the resto of the year. Mitsubishi reports the best performance on the leaderboard, gaining 60.4%.

Market Trend

Nigeria’s car market this year grew very effectively in all quarters except for Q1.

Until 2014 the market grew steady, eventually hitting the 57,000 units record for new vehicles. At the end of that year, the Nigerian Automotive Industry Development Plan was created matching the Brazilian’s one in which the government rather than “invite” to produce locally, “forced” car-makers to appoint local facilities wishing to be part of the “party”.

In the first two following years, the government released almost 30 licenses, while the domestic market collapsed falling down to 11,743 units in 2017, due to the deep economic crisis generated by the fall in oil price and the poor domestic demand.

In 2018 the market started to recover, considering the level was near 20% of the 2014 level. Sales grew up at 19,545 and the first group of car manufacturers started to open small local plants to supply the domestic market. In 2019 the light vehicles market was back in difficulties, following the fast recovery shown in the previous year and sales declined 40.3% at 11,663 units, the second-worst level in the last decade.

The Nigerian new light vehicles market seems unable to recover after the series of negative facts which impacted severely the market in the last years. In 2020, the modest growth of the economy was killed by the combined effects of strict social distancing measures and widespread travel restrictions due to covid19 and the fall of oil prices in the international market.

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fall in oil prices sales significantly decreased in  2020. In fact, sales have been 7,451, reporting a fall of 36.1% compared to 2019.

In 2021 the year started negatively for the Nigerian market, in fact, in Q1 2,600 units have been sold, reporting a 32.2% decrease in sales compared to Q1 2020, while in Q2 sales started growing again, reporting a 339.6% increase with 2,800 units sold.

In Q3 2,658 units ere sold, reporting a 24.9% growth, and in Q4 the market increased again, rising 116.8% with 2,385 units.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2021 have been 10,443, reporting a 35.7% increase compared to 2020.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Toyota (+29.6%) lost 0.6% market share, followed by Ford (+28.9%), which lost 0.5% share. Mitsubishi (+60.4%) reached the third position and gained 1.7% market share.

The most sold model in the country remains the Ford Ranger with 1,255 sales (+32.7%), holding 12.6% share.

]]> The Nigerian auto market in 2020 falls by 36.1% as the pandemic,  lockdowns, and fall in oil prices affect sales. Full-Year sales have been 7.451, while the leader Toyota halves its sales (-49.9%) and loses 5.1% market share.

Economic Environment

The economy likely remained under marked stress in Q3, following the steep GDP contraction in Q2 due to the pandemic-induced lockdowns and collapse in oil prices. According to secondary sources, crude oil output was down by over a fifth in Q3 from last year as the country increasingly stuck to OPEC+ cut commitments.

Together with oil prices stagnating at weak levels in the quarter, the all-important energy sector likely continued to reel. Moreover, accelerating double-digit inflation and tight FX liquidity should have weighed on household purchasing power and general business operations.

Meanwhile, leading data points to some improvement in conditions at the outset of Q4: The private sector PMI edged up on robust output and new order growth, while firms turned markedly less pessimistic in October. That said, the outbreak of widespread violent protests that same month could have weighed on activity to some extent.

Market Trend

The Nigerian car market has been hit in 2020 by the world-wide COVID-19 pandemic and the fall in oil prices.

Until 2014 the market grew steady, eventually hitting the 57.000 units record for new vehicles. At the end of that year, the Nigerian Automotive Industry Development Plan was created matching the Brazilian’s one in which the government rather than “invite” to produce locally, “forced” car-makers to appoint local facilities wishing to be part of the “party”.

In the first two following years, the government released almost 30 licenses, while the domestic market collapsed falling down to 11.743 units in 2017, due to the deep economic crisis generated by the fall in oil price and the poor domestic demand.

In 2018 the market started to recover, considering the level was near 20% of the 2014 level. Sales grew up at 19.545 and the first group of car manufacturers started to open small local plants to supply the domestic market. In 2019 the light vehicles market was back in difficulties, following the fast recovery shown in the previous year and sales declined 40.3% at 11.663 units, the second-worst level in the last decade.

The Nigerian new light vehicles market seems unable to recover after the series of negative facts which impacted severely the market in the last years. In 2020, the modest growth of the economy was killed by the combined effects of strict social distancing measures and widespread travel restrictions due to covid19 and the fall of oil prices in the international market.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2020 have been 7.451, reporting a decline of 36.1% compared to 2019.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Toyota (-49.9%) lost 5.1% market share, followed by Ford (-32.1%), which gained 0.8% share. Hyundai (-40%) remained third and lost 0.6% market share.

The most sold model in the country remains the Ford Ranger with 946 sales (-30.3%), holding 12.7% share.

]]> Nigerian Cars Market in the 2019 the light vehicles market was back in difficulties, following the fast recover shown in the previous year and sales declined 35.3% at 11.300 units, the second worst level in the last decade.

Economic Environment

Nigerian economy likely gathered further momentum in the final stretch of 2019, on the heels of accelerating growth in the third quarter amid quickening activity in the non-oil economy. Bank lending to both households and businesses picked up markedly in October–November, boding well for consumption.

Moreover, the PMI edged higher in Q4 from Q3 on sustained new business and employment growth. Coupled with firms growing more confident about overall economic conditions—reaching the highest level of 2019 in December—and over their own operations in the quarter, particularly in the key industrial and services sectors, indicates improved private-sector dynamics at the closing of 2019.

Economic growth is seen strengthening only slightly this year, mainly driven by firmer household spending on the back of the minimum wage hike.

Conditions remain challenging, however, with overall activity weighed on by power shortages, elevated unemployment, high inflation, insecurity and a more subdued global economy.

Market Trend

Nigerian market – placed 8th worldwide as population and natural resources – was the “gold mine” of the African automotive industry while actually is a market with just few new models sold and a huge bulk of pre-owned imported vehicles

Indeed, until the 2014 the market grew steady, eventually hitting the 57.000 units record for new vehicles, when the Government decided to fix two targets for the industry, aiming to boost local production at over half million annual units, creating the hub for the entire region, while support the development of domestic market, projected to grow four times in the following 5 years to hit the 200.000 annual sales in the 2020.

At the end of that year the Nigerian Automotive Industry Development Plan was created matching the Brazilian’s one in which the government rather than “invite” to produce locally, “forced” car-makers to appoint local facilities wishing to be part of the “party”.

In the first two following years the government released almost 30 licenses, while the domestic market collapsed falling down at 11.743 units (including HCVs and bus) in the 2017, due to the deep economic crisis generated by the fall in oil price and the poor domestic demand. So, despite the released licences, no-one started to create local plant, waiting for better times.

In the 2018 the market started to recovery, considering the level was near 20% of the 2014 level. Sales grew up at 19.545 (including near 2k of HCVs) and a first group of car manufacturer started to open – in same cases to reopen – small local plant to supply the domestic market. This is the case of Mitsubishi Motors, Peugeot, Nissan, Byd. Volkswagen recently announced the desire to re-opening the local plant closed 40 years ago.

A local Joint-venture, Innosov, started the production with huge difficulties both in terms of financing and production skills. However they started to deliver the first models in the 2018.

In the 2019 the light vehicles market was back in difficulties, following the fast recover shown in the previous year and sales declined 35.3% at 11.300 units, the second worst level in the last decade.

With near 25% of market share, Toyota is the leader ahead of Hyundai and Ford.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

]]> Nigerian Cars Market in the 2018 approached a recovery after to have collapsed from 57k to 11k in the previous three years. Supported by middle and upper class demand, new vehicles sales grew up at 17.529 units (+71.3%). Toyota is market leader with a total vehicles market share above 23%.

Economic Environment

Nigerian economy remained relatively weak in the final quarter of 2018, following a modest showing in Q3 which was propped up by higher oil production. The PMI edged down in December and brought the Q4 average below that of Q3’s, signaling waning momentum of business activity towards the end of the year.

On the demand side, multi-year high unemployment in Q3 coupled with still-elevated inflationary pressures through year-end likely weighed on private consumption in Q4.

The economy is expected to gain traction this year, on the back of stronger household consumption and public spending. The recent slide in oil prices and announced OPEC oil output cuts pose downside risks going forward, however. Political uncertainty over the outcome of next month’s general election also clouds the outlook.

Market Trend

Nigerian market was considered the “gold mine” of the African automotive industry considering the country is the 8th worldwide as population and rich of natural resources.

The market steady growing until the 2014 when reached the record of 57.000 units of new vehicles, while at those time the import of used vehicles was estimated near 0.4 million units per year.

The circulating park was already over 5 million units, but very old, obsolete, polluting and without a real value, a part for traders of used spare parts.

Following studies of primary global consulting firm, the Government decide to fix two targets. The first was to boost the new vehicles industry at near 0.2 million units by the 2020  and the second was to do it while creating a local national automotive cluster, inviting global top producers to open plant locally utilizing the country also as hub for the surrounding region.

At the end of the year the Nigerian Automotive Industry Development Plan, was generated, basically copying and paste (a pure ability of primary consultants) the plan developed few years before by the Brazilian government and rather to “invite” to produce locally, they “forced” everyone wishing to sell in the country to produce there.

While in the first two following years the government was glad to release near 30 licenses to assembly local vehicles locally, the fall of oil price in the international market and the poor base of domestic demand created a huge fall in the market which collapsed at 11.743 units (including HCVs and bus) at the end of 2017, with all those licence remaining closed in the Minister’s drawers.

In the 2018, having bottomed down, the market has shown signs of recovery, mainly for a survival demand and the delayed on renovating the vehicles park for the middle/upper classes, and the sales grew up in the entire year ending with a robust recovery of 71.3% at 17.529 units (still very far from the record and from any dreamed target).

In the productive side something is moving. The local venture, Innosov, started to deliver few hundred thousand units, but the funds available are uncertain and the destiny looks signed and not positive.

Other local manufacturers opened or restored after years are owned by Mitsubishi Motors, Peugeot, Nissan, Byd. But we did not find sales figures which confirm that production is effective. Volkswagen recently announced to plan the re-opening of the local plant, closed 40 years ago.

AS far as the competitive arena, in the 2018 market leader was Toyota, selling 3.931 vehicles (+57.4%) with 23% of market share. In second place Ford with 1.809 units (+74.3%) followed by Hyundai with 1.601 (+44.1%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

]]> Nigeria New Vehicles collapsed in the 2017 losing two-third of 2016 volume and landing at 11.000 – including HCVs – almost one fifth of 2014 record. The market is in an embarrassing chaos, with huge cost for import and no room for local production.

Nigerian economic recovery is gaining steam, although activity is still weak. GDP growth picked up pace in the third quarter due to faster growth in the oil sector, however, the rest of the economy performed poorly.

Available data for the fourth quarter suggests that the economy is gaining traction: The PMI rose to a multi-year high in December and higher oil prices throughout the quarter bode well for oil production revenues.

Considered the new gold mine for the African automotive sector just 36 months ago, actually the Nigerian automotive industry is enveloped in an embarrassing chaos. While the Government has released near 30 licenses to build vehicles locally, no one of them has been used after that market dropped from over 50k to a 2017 projection of only 12k (including HCVs).

The NAIP (Nigerian Automotive Industry Development Plan) launched in the 2013 has progressively increased all duties and taxes on vehicles imported while providing incentives to local made vehicles. Considering the local production is still at 2k, the result of this policy was to force OEMs to increase new vehicles price while the country was hit by the deep recession created by the fall of oil prices.

Results are a fall on vehicles sales from 52.000 in the 2014 at 11.743 in the 2017.

All brands are heavily losing, with the market leader Toyota down 75.0% at 2.663 sales.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

]]> Nigeria Auto Market 2016 hit by the deepest economic crisis of the last 25 years and fell down at the lowest level in last 10 years. Over 30 licences released to locally produced are parked for better times. Toyota shining.

Nigeria is set to have closed 2016 with its worst GDP figure in 25 years as low oil prices, tight monetary liquidity and militant attacks on oil infrastructure rocked the economy.

Although economic activity is showing some faint signs of improvement, conditions remain challenging and weakness persists at the outset of the year. These concerns were expressed by credit rating agency Fitch Ratings which downgraded the country’s outlook to Negative from Stable

In such harsh environment any expectations for the re-born of the automotive industry has been broken. While almost 30 carmakers have negotiated the licence to locally build vehicles, in line with the NAP plans, all plans had been frozen waiting for more favorable times.

Indeed the domestic market struggled all the year ending the 2016 at the lowest level in last 10 years with 36.132 sales, down 26.0% from the previous year. Unfortunately 2017 outlook is still negative.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

]]> Nigeria Vehicles Market in 2015 fell down hit by weak economy, social turmoil and low oil price. Despite the 66% fall of imported new vehicles, the start of several local assembly locations sustained vehicles demand.

Economic Outlook

The economy decelerated notably in 2015, mainly due to low oil prices, turmoil in financial markets and severe imbalances in the foreign-exchange market after authorities decided to maintain an artificially-strong naira. GDP expanded 3.0% in 2015, which was below 2014’s 6.2% expansion and marked the weakest growth in over 15 years.

Although growth is expected to pick up this year, weaknesses observed throughout 2015 carried into Q1. Against a backdrop of falling oil prices and rising scarcity of hard currency, the naira traded in the parallel markets dipped to new record-lows. The official exchange rate is 199 NGN per USD, while one dollar is currently buying 345 naira in the black markets.

Adding to an already-sticky economic situation, President Muhammadu Buhari removed the head of the country’s budget office as the 2016 budget presented in December contained errors. The new budget is expected to be approved by the Parliament in March.

Market Outlook

It was announced that over 128 million dollars has been invested in the 2015 by automotive companies to set up local vehicles production in Nigeria, following the introduction of the 2013 Nigeria National Automotive Plant and the increased duties on full assembled vehicles imports, introduced in the 2015.

However the market did not reacted as expected by local authorities and forecast by local offices of the main consulting firm, all expecting an easy gold path from now to the 2020 target of 200.000 vehicles.

In the reality, new light vehicles sold in 2015 declined at 53.371 units (-4.8%) with imported full assembled vehicles dropped over 66% and now counting around 15% of total.

New vehicles grey market is estimated in additional 7.000 units and could boom in the next months as trader are looking to avoid to sustain duties for assembled vehicles.

Toyota was market leader, as always, with over 15.000 vehicles sold, followed by Hyundai at 7.700 and Kia just below the 5.000.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands