Market Trend and Outlook

Kenya’s vehicle market in September 2023 falls for the 4th consecutive month, reporting 1364 new light vehicle registrations (-57.5%). YTD figures at 7,985 are down 28.3% from the previous year.

Looking at cumulative data up to September 2023 brand-wise, this year’s leader is still Isuzu with 48.6% market share and a 28.7% decrease in sales, followed by Toyota with 29.9% market share and a 34.1% loss in volume. Ford becomes the 3rd best selling brand in Kenya.

Medium-Term Market Trend

Following a quite positive period, which ended with the all-time record hit in 2015 with 19,515 vehicles (including HCVs & Bus) sold, the Kenyan vehicles market was hit by the economic crisis and started falling down, losing in two years over 40% of volume, with 2017  total vehicle sales (including HCVs) reaching just 11,031 (-18.2%).

In 2018 the mood changed and the market recovered. Sustained by private consumption the market scored a recovery above any expectations. Indeed, according to data released by the Kenyan Motor Industry Association, the market grew, gaining 28.0% from 2017, with registrations at 14,124.

In 2019 despite a very good start, with Q1 up in double-digits, the market progressively lost steam ending Q4 with a sharp decline. Full-year sales reached 21,877, up 54.9%.

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic sales significantly decreased in  2020. In fact, sales totaled 14,626, a 33.1% fall compared to 2019.

The market gained back some momentum in 2021, rising 36.9% to 20,028 new yearly sales. While 2022 interrupted this brief uptrend, falling 2.0% to 15,941 sales

Market Trend and Outlook

Kenya’s car market in 2022 falls for the first year after reporting a 36.9% increase in sales the year prior. With 15,941 new sales, the market is down 2.0% compared to 2021.

Looking at cumulative data from 2022 brand-wise, this year’s leader is still Toyota with 36.7% market share and a 4.3% increase in sales, followed by Isuzu with 22.3% market share and a 5.8% loss in volume. Nissan with a 24.0% growth maintains 3rd spot in the ranking.

Market Trend and Outlook

Ethiopia’s car market in 2022 maintains the momentum built up in 2021. New vehicle sales, in fact, reach 1,503, a 5.6% increase from the previous year.

Looking at cumulative data from 2022 brand-wise, the leader is still Toyota with a 2.8% increase in sales and 32.0% market share, followed by Ford up 7.2% from last year. Lifan ranks in 3rd reporting a 7.9% increase in sales and 17.1% market share.

Medium-Term Market Trend

The market in recent years has been revitalized by the presence of several small local assembly plants, built by Chines BYD, FAW, Lifan, Sinotruck, and Geely, plus Toyota and, since 2017, Kia.

Despite the recent years’ positive economic environment, the Ethiopian market has deteriorated, dropping from near 4,000 units in 2015 to 2,034 in 2018.

In 2019, the market (including HCVs) declined again, marking the sixth annual loss in a row. Indeed, Full-year sales have been 1,935, down 4.9% from the previous year.

Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic full-Year sales for 2020 have been 1,351, reporting a decline of 29.7% compared to 2019.

Following the pandemic the market recovered in 2021, rising 5.3% to 1,423 cumulative new sales.

Market Trend

Kenya’s car market this year grew slowly but dropped in double-digits in the second half of the year.

Following a quite positive period, which ended with the all-time record hit in 2015 with 19,549 vehicles (including HCVs & Bus) sold, the Kenyan vehicles market was hit by the economic crisis and started falling down, losing in two years over 40% of volume., with 2017  total vehicles (including HCVs) at 10,831 (-19.8%).

In 2018 the mood changed and the market recovered, sustained by private consumption and the market score a recovery above expectations. Indeed, according to data released by the Kenyan Motor Industry Association, the market grew, gaining 31.2% from 2017, with registrations at 14,251.

In 2019 despite a very good start, with the Q1 ended up in double-digit, the market has progressively lost steam ending the Q4 with a sharp decline. Full-year sales have been 13,298, down 6.7%. While the HCVs segment was steady, the car passengers dropped down in double-digits.

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic sales significantly decreased in  2020. In fact, sales have been 6,942, reporting a fall of 47.8% compared to 2019.

In 2021 the year started positively for the Kenyan market, in fact, in Q1 1,530 units have been sold, reporting a 69.8% increase in sales compared to Q1 2020, and in Q2 sales kept growing due to the incredibly low levels of the previous year, reporting a 41.6% increase with 1,410 units sold.

In Q3 sales were falling in double-digits, losing 14.9% sales with 1,114 units, and fell further (-39.9%) in Q4 with 1,102 units sold.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2021 have been 5,156, reporting a 2.3% increase compared to 2020.

Brand-wise, this year the new leader Isuzu (+43.7%) gained 7.5% market share, followed by Toyota (-16.2%), which lost 11.2% share. Nissan (+105%) reached third place and gained 2.2% market share.

The most sold model in the country is the Toyota Land Cruiser P/U with 692 sales (-25.6%), holding 13.4% market share.

Market Trend

Ethiopia’s car market this year recovered effectively from the pandemic crash of 2020 and reported a promising performance in all quarters except for Q4.

The market in recent years has been revitalized by the presence of several small local assembly plants, built by Chines BYD, FAW, Lifan, Sinotruck, and Geely, plus Toyota and, since 2017, Kia.

Despite the recent years’ positive economic environment, the Ethiopian market has deteriorated, dropping from near 4,000 units in 2015 to 2,034 in 2018.

In 2019, the market (including HCVs) declined again, marking the sixth annual loss in a row. Indeed, Full-year sales have been 1,935, down 4.9% from the previous year.

Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic full-Year sales for 2020 have been 1,351, reporting a decline of 29.7% compared to 2019.

In 2021 the year started quite positively for the Ethiopian market, in fact, in Q1 363 units have been sold, reporting a 10.3% increase in sales compared to Q1 2020, and in Q2 sales kept growing, reporting a 29.5% increase in sales with 373 units sold due to the low sales volume registered in Q2 2020.

In Q3 sales remained almost flat (+0.6%) with 358 units sold, while in Q4 sales dropped 13% with 329 units sold.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2021 have been 1,423, reporting a 5.3% increase compared to 2020.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Toyota (-17.2%) lost 7.6% market share, followed by Ford (+1.8%), which lost 0.5% share. Lifan (+21.6%) was in the third position and gained 1.9% market share.

The most sold model in the country this year is the Ford Ranger with 197 sales, holding 16.2% market share.

Economic Environment

Midway through the second quarter of FY 2020 (8 July 2020–7 July 2021), the economic panorama remains grim. Restrictive measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus remain largely in place, with only some schools reopening in late October.

As such, domestic demand is set to be dented in the quarter. Moreover, the armed conflict in the country’s Tigray region has intensified recently, further weighing on the domestic economy and sparking fears of civil war. Tensions on the external front also remain as a new round of talks with Egypt and Sudan conducted in early November failed to overcome differences over the Nile river dam dispute.

Additionally, rising new Covid-19 cases globally will likely hamper the external sector and further weaken foreign demand, thereby dragging on the economy in the quarter.

Market Trend

The Ethiopian vehicle market has been affected in 2020 by the global COVID-19 pandemic, which impacted sales significantly.

The market in recent years has been revitalized by the presence of several small local assembly plants, built by Chines BYD, FAW, Lifan, Sinotruck, and Geely, plus Toyota and, since 2017, Kia.

Despite the recent years’ positive economic environment, the Ethiopian market has deteriorated, dropping from near 4.000 units in 2015 to 2.034 in 2018.

In 2019, the market (including HCVs) declined again, marking the sixth annual loss in a row. Indeed, Full-year sales have been 1.935, down 4.9% from the previous year.

Full-Year sales for 2020 have been 1.351, reporting a 29.7% decrease compared to 2019.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Toyota (+8.3%) gained 12.5% market share, followed by Ford (+29%), which gained 7.3% share. Lifan (-33.7%) was in the third position and lost 0.7% market share.

The most sold model in the country this year is the Ford Ranger with 190 sales, holding 14.1% market share.

Economic Environment

The economy should have recovered in Q3, albeit frailly, after contracting for the first time in at least a decade in Q2 due to the pandemic. Exports increased in July–August after shrinking in Q2, while the fall in imports softened in the same period. However, this still points to weakened domestic demand.

Moving forward, the situation was seemingly upbeat at the outset of Q4: Business conditions improved notably in October, with the private sector PMI climbing to a record high, boosted by strengthening aggregate demand as more restrictions were eased.

However, a recent rise in Covid-19 cases prompted a snap-back of containment measures in early November, boding ill for activity. In other news, the government aims to borrow an additional KES 1.0 trillion (around USD 9.2 billion) for the current fiscal year (1 July 2020–30 June 2021) as revenues have dwindled, and is seeking a second IMF loan.

Market Trend

The Kenyan car market has been hit very harshly in 2020 by the world-wide COVID-19 pandemic, which has impacted sales significantly.

Following a quite positive period, which ended with the all-time record hit in 2015 with 19.549 vehicles (including HCVs & Bus) sold, the Kenyan vehicles market was hit by the economic crisis and started falling down, losing in two years over 40% of volume., with 2017  total vehicles (including HCVs) at 10.831 (-19.8%).

In 2018 the mood changed and the market recovered, sustained by private consumption and the market score a recovery above expectations. Indeed, according to data released by the Kenyan Motor Industry Association, the market grew, gaining 31.2% from 2017, with registrations at 14.251.

In 2019 despite a very good start, with the Q1 ended up in double-digit, the market has progressively lost steam ending the Q4 with a sharp decline. Full-year sales have been 13.298, down 6.7%. While the HCVs segment was steady, the car passengers dropped down in double-digits.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2020 have been 6.942, reporting a 47.8% decrease compared to 2019.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Toyota (-30.9%) gained 7.5% market share, followed by Isuzu (-56.8%), which lost 7.4% share. Tata (-17.7%) reached third place and gained 2.4% market share.

The most sold model in the country is the Toyota Land Cruiser P/U with 930 sales (+69.7%), holding a growing 13.4% market share.

Economic Environment

Ethiopia economic growth gained strength in the 2018–2019 fiscal year, which ended in July 2019, spurred by a strong services sector and soaring industrial production.

Available data for FY Q1 2019–2020 suggests resilience: Exports growth was sustained in the quarter, while public investment spending jumped by more than one quarter, although the fiscal deficit widened in the period.

Market Trend

Ethiopian vehicles market in recent years has been revitalized by the presence of several small local assembly plants, built by Chines BYD, FAW, Lifan, Sino-truck and Geely, plus Toyota and, since 2017, Kia.

Despite the recent years’ positive economic environment, the Ethiopian market in recent years has deteriorated, dropping from near 4.000 units in 2015 to 2.034 in 2018.

In 2019, the market (including HCVs) declined again, marking the sixth annual loss in a row. Indeed, Full-year sales have been 1.935, down 4.9% from the previous year.

In the competitive landscape, Toyota is still the market dominator, holding a stable 19.6% of share, ahead of Isuzu and Lifan, both holding near 15% of the total market.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

Economic Environment

Kenya’s economy lost traction in the third quarter of 2019, expanding at the slowest rate in two years on the back a of a broad-based slowdown across the major sectors. In particular, growth of the all-important agricultural sector–which accounts for about a quarter of the country’s total output–slowed to a near two-year low amid a drop in the production of key crops.

Turning to Q4, available data suggests continued weakened momentum: The PMI deteriorated somewhat in Q4 compared to Q3 amid heavy rainfall which disrupted firms’ delivery times.

Growth is expected to quicken this year on the back of a pick-up in domestic demand. Upbeat household consumption is seen underpinning the expansion, while healthy government spending ought to further support growth. Adverse weather conditions and a wide fiscal deficit remain downside risks to the outlook

Market Trend

Following a quite positive period, ended with the all time record hit in the 2015 with 19.549 vehicles sold, Kenyan vehicles market was hit by the economic crisis and started falling down, losing in two years over 40% of volume., with 2017  total vehicles (including HCVs) at 10.831 (-19.8%).

In the 2018 the mood changed and the market recovered, sustained by private consumption and the market score a recovery above expectations. Indeed, according to data released by the Kenyan Motor Industry Association, in the market grown, gaining 31.2% from 2017, with registrations at 14.251.

In the 2019 despite a very good start, with the Q1 ended up in double-digit, the market has progressively lost steam ending the Q4 with a sharp decline. Full-year sales have been 13.130, down 7.9%. While HCVs segment was steady, the car passengers dropped down in double-digits.

The market leader was again Isuzu, which benefit by the large quota of HCVs in the total vehicles market. Isuzu kept one third of market share. In second place the leader in the light vehicles segment, Toyota. The two leaders reported a combined share over 60%.

Market Perspectives

Volkswagen has been the first to return to produce in the country, starting up in the 2017 local operations after a four-decade absence, and is producing the Polo Vivo model from SKD kits.  Last year, bolstering government plans to develop a regional auto-manufacturing hub in East Africa’s biggest economy, PSA and Nissan have announced to plan opening local production.

Nissan is in advanced discussion with the government to open an operational assembly line by the end of 2019 utilizing an already plant in partnership with Isuzu East Africa Ltd., Associated Vehicle Assemblers Ltd., which belongs to Simba Corp., and Kenya Vehicle Manufacturers, a venture between the government, Toyota Tsusho Corp. and Al-Futtaim Group.

Once established, the Kenyan facility will feed the Eastern Africa market, which is currently served by imports of light trucks from South Africa with other models coming from Japan. In addition to its plant in South Africa, Nissan has an assembly line in Nigeria.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands

Economic Environment

Kenya’s economic lost traction again in the final quarter of 2018 after expanding at a robust, albeit softening, pace in the third quarter on strong agricultural and hydro-powered electricity output. Rising inflation, a continued slowdown in remittance inflows and weaker credit growth likely weighed on private consumption in Q3.

Entering the fourth quarter, a pick-up in remittances and an acceleration in credit in October likely stimulated greater household spending. Moreover, PMI readings for Q4 indicate private sector activity remained resilient.

Growth is expected to remain strong in 2019, thanks to solid domestic demand. Private consumption should continue to expand at a healthy pace, buoyed by solid remittances inflows and a tight labor market, while upbeat business confidence should continue to support strong fixed investment growth.

Market Trend

Following a quite positive period, ended with the all time record hit in the 2015 with 19.549 vehicles sold, Kenyan vehicles market was hit by the economic crisis and started falling down, losing in two years over 40% of volume., with 2017  total vehicles (including HCVs) at 10.831 (-19.8%).

In the 2018 the mood changed and the market recovered, sustained by private consumption and the market score a recovery above expectations. Indeed, according to data released by the Kenyan Motor Industry Association, in the 2018 the market has grown, despite a still negative first half with a strong acceleration during Q2 and Q3, recovering the gap and even ending the year with a substantial gain of 0he market recovered during the last part of the year, gaining 19.1% from the 2017. The market ended with registrations at 12.932.

The market leader is again Isuzu, dominating the commercial segment, with 4.797 sales and 33.6% of market share. Toyota was second with 3.331 sales ahead of Mitsubishi with 1.126.

Market Perspectives

Volkswagen has been the first to return to produce in the country, starting up in the 2017 local operations after a four-decade absence, and is producing the Polo Vivo model from SKD kits.  Last year, bolstering government plans to develop a regional auto-manufacturing hub in East Africa’s biggest economy, PSA and Nissan have announced to plan opening local production.

Nissan is in advanced discussion with the government to open an operational assembly line by the end of 2019 utilizing an already plant in partnership with Isuzu East Africa Ltd., Associated Vehicle Assemblers Ltd., which belongs to Simba Corp., and Kenya Vehicle Manufacturers, a venture between the government, Toyota Tsusho Corp. and Al-Futtaim Group.

Once established, the Kenyan facility will feed the Eastern Africa market, which is currently served by imports of light trucks from South Africa with other models coming from Japan. In addition to its plant in South Africa, Nissan has an assembly line in Nigeria.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands