Market Trend and Outlook

Although the United Kingdom is expected to avoid a recession this year, the country faces a challenging economic outlook. The energy price shock due to Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted the recovery, with growth projected at a modest 0.4 percent in 2023 and 1 percent in 2024. The terms of trade shock, amid historically tight labor markets, has also pushed inflation to record levels.

Despite a negative economic outlook the British Auto Market stays strong, with sales in October 2023 growing for the 13th month in a row and reaching 153,467 new registrations (+14.2%). YTD figures at 1.60 million are up 19.5% compared to the prior year.

Looking at cumulative data up to October 2023, brand-wise Volkswagen -up 1 spot- becomes the new leader with 136,391 new registrations (+29.9%), in front of Ford at 123,894 sales (+14.6%).

In 3rd position ranks Audi with 116,666 sales (+29.3%), followed by Kia with 96,784 registrations (+8.6%), Toyota at 93,639 (+7.3%) and BMW with 89,403 sales (+0.6%).

Opel maintains 7th with 85,219 sales (+15.5%), in front of Hyundai at 75,456 (+8.2%), Nissan with 74,592 (+25.1%) and Mercedes -down 2 spots- closing the Top 10 with 72,801 cumulative sales (+2.0%).

Looking at specific models the Ford Puma is the best seller with a 36.4% increase in year-on-year sales, followed by the Nissan Qashqai up 4.1%.

Medium-Term Market Trend

The decline of the British vehicles market was already in place since a couple of decades, with the relocation of several manufacturing activities in other low cost European countries, but the exit from the European Community has further accelerated the process, starting from the long discussions about BREXIT.

Indeed the market reached a record level in 2016 (2.6 million annual sales) and then started to decline. The pandemic in 2020 further accelerated the process pushing the industry down to 1.6 million and rather than recovering, it seems that the market direction is still down.

In the following two years, in fact, the British market didn’t perform quite well. In 2021 volume remained relatively flat, with sales rising merely 0.7% and in 2022 the market dropped further, losing 1.6%.

Indeed, the effects of current global threats, including record inflation rate, increased fuel price, political instability, transition to electrification, raw materials shortage, are emphasized in UK by the economic effects of BREXIT.

Despite the bad performance in the last years, 2023 has started off with a bang. In fact, it maintained the momentum built up in the last months of 2022, with the first few months of the year growing in double digits.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for the top 40 Brands and top 10 Manufacturers Groups.

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Market Report

The report provides a comprehensive and complete overview of the market competitive environment including information on the sales volumes of cars and light commercial vehicles, market size, market share, and industry trends.

Through our comprehensive global sales database and the expertise of seasoned consultants in this field, we can help you gain further insight into the automotive market trends and base your business decisions on actionable data.

Table of contents

• Country Overview
  • Geography
  • History
  • People & Politics
• Economic Outlook
  • Economy
  • Infrastructure
• Market Outlook
  • Market Heritage
  • Car Passenger’s segmentation
  • LCVs segmentation
  • Car Passengers Body Type mix
  • LCVs Body Type mix
  • Premium segment share
  • Chinese OEMs share
• Key Players
  • Top selling Groups 2022
  • Top selling Brands 2022
  • Premium Brands
  • Chinese Brands
• Market Data By Model
  • Top selling Models 2022
  • Top models by segment and body type
• Key Factors for market Evolution
  • Country development
  • Economic Outlook
  • Customer base evolution
  • Low-Carbon Transition Policy
  • Infrastructure & Investments
• 2023-2028 Volume Forecast
  • TIV evolution by segment
  • Cars and LCVs forecast
  • Segments forecast
  • Premium segment share forecast
  • Chinese OEMs share forecast
  • Forecast by Manufacturer

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Market Trend and Outlook

The British auto market closes the year totaling 1.62 million sales, a 1.9% decrease from the prior year and the lowest level in 16 years. In December sales grew 19.2% with 129,462 new registrations, making it the 3rd positive month in a row. 

Looking at cumulative data from 2022, brand-wise Volkswagen with 131,850 sales (-10.8%) maintains 1st position in front of Ford at 126,826 (+9.0%).

In 3rd position ranks Audi with 110,144 sales (-6.6%), followed by BMW with 108,624 (-6.8%), Toyota  with 102,181 (+1.3%) and Kia with 100,191 sales (+10.3%).

Opel maintains 7th with 83,691 sales (-8.5%), in front of Mercedes with 80,910 (-17.4%), Hyundai with 80,419 (+15.4%) and Nisan closing the Top 10 with 76,711 (+12.0%).

Medium-Term Market Trend

The decline of the British vehicles market was already in place since a couple of decades, with the relocation of several manufacturing activities in other low cost European countries, but the exit from the European Community has further accelerated the process, starting from the long discussions about BREXIT.

Indeed the market reached a record level in 2016 (2.6 million annual sales) and then started to decline. The pandemic in 2020 further accelerated the process pushing the industry down at 1.6 million and rather to recover, it seems that the market direction is still down.

Indeed, the effects of current global threats, including record inflation rate, increased fuel price, political instability, transition to electrification, raw materials shortage, are emphasized in UK but the economic effects of BREXIT.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for the top 40 Brands and top 10 Manufacturers Groups.

Market Trend

The UK car market this year attempted to recover from the pandemic crash of 2020 and reported positive performance only in Q2 due to the very low levels reached in Q2 2020, while all other quarters were down in double-digits

The referendum on BREXIT in 2016 found the national automotive industry on the top of its glorious history. Following five years of consecutive growth, the light vehicles market hit in that year the All-Time record sales with 3.06 million units and was the fourth largest in the World.

After the referendum, the industry trend mirrored the British economy and a prolonged decline started. Indeed, the light vehicles market fell down both in 2017 and 2018, while the rest of Europe was growing without uncertainty, and in 2018 sales have been 2.72 million, of which 2.36 were car passengers. In 2019, registrations fell at the lower level out of the last 5 years, with 2.64 units sold.

The finally defined BREXIT process, created alarm of economic outlook with deep effects on the relevant automotive industry and fears for production activity shift from the UK to the continent, as already decided by Honda and JLR.

In 2020 sales have been 1,631,064, reporting a decline of 29.4% compared to 2019.

In 2021 the year started negatively for the UK market, in fact, in Q1 425,525 units have been sold, reporting a 12% decrease in sales compared to Q1 2020, while Q2 sales boomed impressively, reporting a 185.1% increase with 484,448 units sold.

In Q3 sales started falling in double-digits again, losing 31.1% sales with 406,641 units, followed by a 14.7% fall in Q4 with just 330,567 sales.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2021 have been 1.65 million, reporting just a 1% increase compared to 2019.

Brand-wise, this year the new leader Volkswagen (-0.3%) lost 0.1% market share, followed by Audi (+9.4%) which gained 0.5% share. BMW remained in third place and gained 1%.  Ford -the previous leader- reported the worst performance by falling 23.9%, followed by Toyota  -up 2 spots- which gained 9.9%.

Mercedes -down 2 spots- fell 11.7%, followed by Opel which lost 1 spot by falling 4.2%, and Kia which jumped 1 spot and rose 28.7% sales. Closing the leaderboard we have Hyundai -rising 4 spots- reporting the best performance by gaining 46.7% this year and Nissan falling 2 spots by losing 4.8%.

The most sold vehicle this year is the Opel Corsa (-14.2%) with 40,914 units sold, followed by the Tesla Model 3 -up 11 spots-, which gained 58.2% with 34,783 new sales this year. The Ford Focus (-16.9%) closes the podium -rising 1 spot- and reports 32,704 units sold.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for the top 40 Brands and top 10 Manufacturers Groups.

Market Trend

The UK car market was hit extremely harshly in 2020 as the global pandemic has impacted sales tremendously. In fact, the fall was so harsh that we recorded the lowest annual volume for the country since 1992.

The referendum on BREXIT in 2016 found the national automotive industry on the top of its glorious history. Following five years of consecutive growth, the light vehicles market hit in that year the All-Time record sales with 3.06 million units and was the fourth largest in the World.

After the referendum, the industry trend mirrored the British economy and a prolonged decline started. Indeed, the light vehicles market fell down both in 2017 and 2018, while the rest of Europe was growing without uncertainty, and in 2018 sales have been 2.72 million, of which 2.36 were car passengers. In 2019, registrations fell at the lower level out of the last 5 years, with 2.64 units sold.

The finally defined BREXIT process, created alarm of economic outlook with deep effects on the relevant automotive industry and fears for production activity shift from the UK to the continent, as already decided by Honda and JLR.

After starting the year with a slight negative trend (-7.3%) due to future fears about a trade deal, the market quickly collapsed in March (-44.4%) as the virus struck. The sharpest drop in sales this year was in April when sales declined by 97.3% as the market was impacted by restrictions on travel and lockdowns. After recovering, in June the market reported the only growth of the year (+11.3%), but sales remained negative in the following months and even fell in double digits for the last 2 months of the year as the second wave hampered the country.

Indeed, Full-Year sales for 2020 have been 1.631.064, reporting a decline of 29.4% compared to 2019.

Looking at fuel types, petrol sales are off -39% to 903.961 and 55.4% share vs. 64.1% a year ago, diesel is down -55% to 261.772 and 16% share vs. 25.2%, Mild Hybrid (MHEV) soars 137.4% to 180.132 and 11% share vs. 3.3% last year, HEV is up 12.1% to 110.117 and 6.8% share vs. 4.3%, BEV up 185.9% to 108.205 and 6.6% share vs. 1.6% and PHEV up 91.2% to 66.877 and 4.1% share vs. 1.5%.

Brand-wise, this year the leader Ford (-35.3%) lost 0.9% market share, followed by  Volkswagen (-26.1%), which gained 0.4% share. BMW on the other hand jumped 1 spot and lost 0.3% share, falling 32%.  Mercedes lost 35.5%, followed by Audi  -up 1 spot- which lost 22.4%.

Opel (Vauxhall) registered the worst performance in the leaderboard by losing 37.9%, followed by Toyota which on the other hand reported the best performance (-12.7%), and Nissan which jumped 1 spot and lost 22.1% sales. Closing the leaderboard we have Kia -down 1 spot- losing 27.5% this year and Skoda entering the leaderboard by jumping 3 spots, losing 21.8%.

The most sold vehicle for 12 consecutive years has been the Ford Fiesta (-36.8%) with 49.174 units sold, followed by the Opel Corsa -up 2 spots-, which lost 12% registering 47.706 new sales this year. The Volkswagen Golf (-26.9%) closes the podium -falling 1 spot- and reports 43.109 units sold.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for top 40 Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.

Economic Environment

British economy appeared to perform poorly in the fourth quarter, as elevated political uncertainty weighed on activity. Both the services and manufacturing PMIs were in contractionary territory in the period, with firms blaming Brexit and weak external conditions for the soft patch. The labor market, however, remained a chink of positivity: In August–October, employment returned to growth and wage gains were robust, which should be supporting private consumption somewhat.

Meanwhile, in politics, the Conservative Party won an absolute majority in the December elections. As a result, the UK should leave the EU by end-January, and the new administration will likely implement fiscal stimulus, supporting economic activity. However, the government’s recent decision to legislate against an extension to the transition period—which will run until end-2020—leaves the possibility of a no-deal exit next year, which will keep investment muted.

Market Trend

The referendum on BREXIT in the 2016 found the national automotive industry on the top of its glorious history. Following five years of consecutive grow, the light vehicles market hit in that year the All Time record sales with 3.06 million units and was the fourth largest in the World.

After the referendum the industry trend mirrored the British economy and was prolonged decline started, waiting for the announced collapse after BREXIT will become effective. Indeed, the light vehicles market felt down both in 2017 and 2018, while the rest of Europe was growing without uncertain, and in the 2018 sales have been 2.72 million, of which 2.36 were car passenger, at the lower level out of last  5 years.

According to data released by the Royal Minister of Transportation, in 2019 the market signed the third decline in a row. Indeed, the full year ended with 2.301.876 sales, down 2.7% and the LCVs segment is declining as well.

Considered local brands and always involved in the country with several plants and million units produced per year, Ford and Opel (locally under the brand Vauxhall) were the market leaders controlling a heavy market share until a decade ago. Nowadays, both brands have lost steam on the market. However, Ford manages to stay on top of the list with a market share declined at 14% since the 2015 and has further lost at 10.1%. Opel/Vauxhall collapsed in these years losing the second place in the 2017 and actually ranking in fifth, behind to BMW, Mercedes and Volkswagen, with only 6.7% of market share.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models

Economic Environment

British economy have lost momentum in the final quarter. In the three months to October, GDP growth slowed on lower car sales and a softer pharmaceutical sector, while retail sales declined in month-on-month terms for the second straight month in October. Meanwhile, in November the services PMI slipped to an over two-year low, due to slower expansions in new orders and employment, while sentiment among consumers worsened.

In contrast, the labor market remains a bright spot; in the three months to October, employment growth was solid, while nominal wage growth reached a near-decade high. On the political front, Prime Minister Theresa May recently called off the vote on the Brexit withdrawal agreement scheduled for 11 December, due to a lack of parliamentary support. She subsequently survived a no-confidence motion tabled by Conservative MPs.

Growth should be fueled next year by the looser fiscal stance and higher wages boosting private consumption. However, private fixed investment will likely remain subdued until there is greater clarity on the Brexit front. A failure to ratify the EU withdrawal deal before the UK departs the bloc in March 2019 is the key downside risk.

Market Trend

According to data released by the Royal Minister of Transportation, the 2018 was in line with the previous year, closing with the second consecutive fall negative performance. Indeed, the market has the year with 2.366.929 sales (-6.8%), largely influenced by the Brexit uncertainty affecting business prospects and consumer morale.

Moreover, several government measures targeting diesel-powered vehicles have affected the market, where diesel sales kept crumbling – down 29.6% – to the advantage of petrol sales, up 8.7%. However, Alternatively Fueled Vehicles (AFV) have boomed at 20.9%.

Sales 2014	Sales 2015	Sales 2016	Sales 2017	Sales 2018	'+/- 2018
2.476.435	2.633.483	2.692.786	2.540.977	2.366.929	-6,8%

Competitive Arena

In a couple of years, BREXIT will dramatically change the competitive landscape in Great Britain. In the last 50 years, the market has been dominated by two brands, Ford and the GM owned Vauxhall (sold to PSA in the 2017), but their empire is over.

Ford of Britain started the business in 1909 and has been the UK’s biggest-selling car and commercial vehicle brand for 34 and 45 consecutive years respectively until June 2018 when Volkswagen has taken the leadership for three consecutive months (but in September Ford was back on top).

Looking at the 2018 ranking, the market share of the leader has been further eroded and Ford led the line with 254.082 units (-11.6%), closing with 10.7% of market share.

In second place Volkswagen with 203.133 sales (-2.6%) having taken a safe gap over Opel (Vauxhall) actually third with 177.297 units (-9.1%).

In fourth place Mercedes with 172.238 (-4.8%) followed by BMW with 172.048 (-1.7%), Audi with 143.739 (-17.9%), Nissan with 102.637 (-32.1%), Toyota with 101.922 (-0.1%), Kia with 95.764 (+2.7%) and in 10th place Hyundai with 89.925 (-3.7%).

At model-wise, the 2018 best-selling car is the Ford Fiesta with 95.892 sales (+1.4%), ahead of the Volkswagen Golf with 64.829 (-13.1%) and the Opel Corsa with 52.915 (+0.3%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models

British economy continues to send mixed signals in the second half of the year. Recent data show that growth in Q3 beat expectations, thanks to a resilient service sector and a jump in industrial production. In addition, both the services and manufacturing PMIs moved further into positive territory in October, while the unemployment rate remained at a multi-decade low in the third quarter. However, over the same period employment fell and the inactivity rate rose compared to Q2, hinting at a slight softening in a labor market which had remained rock-solid despite Brexit uncertainty. Growth has also lagged significantly behind the EU average since the start of the year, and with continuing negative real wage growth, private consumption is being fueled by consumers running down their savings.

The automotive industry is a key pillar of the local economy and a strong export factor since years and despite all local brands had been acquired by foreign companies and therefore the sector has to re-think many strategies now that the BREXIT process is ongoing. In the short-term, the market is seen in moderate decline, after years of stable growth and the all time record hit last year. In the middle term, the market should be hit be the effects of BREXIT on the economy.

British vehicles market flourished in recent years hitting two consecutive all time record in 2015 and 2016 overtaking for the first time the milestone of 3 million light vehicles sales in a year. Car passenger’ record was established in the 2016 with 2.692.000 units. However, since mid 2016 the market ended the speed and has progressively taken a descendent track.

Indeed, according to data released by the Royal Minister of Transportation, in the 2017 full year sales have been 2.540.000, down 5.4%.  2018 outlook is negative and sales are foreseen near 2.3 million units.

We just released two new products, wonderful to figure out all about this market allowing you to receive in excel all data regarding the 2017 and/or a high professional research covering the 2010 – 2025 sales data and forecast for this market.

Brand-wise, Ford is still on top of the list albeit the trend is below the industry and the year was ended with 287.396 sales (-9.7%).

Volkswagen gained the second place with 208.452 sales (+0.7%) overtaking Vauxhall (Opel in the tables) down 22.2% with 195.137 units. This brand is expected to keep losing volume in the next months as the new owner (PSA) input is to cut unprofitable sales.

In fourth place Mercedes with 180.970 units (+6.6%) followed by BMW with 175.101 (-4.1%), Audi with 174.197 units (-1.3%), Nissan with 151.156 (-0.9%), Toyota with 101.985 (+5.4%), Hyundai with 93.403 (+1.0%) and in 10th place Kia with 93.222 (+4.3%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models

Market Outlook

The United Kingdom’s economy continues to hold up well. The economy was supported by a rebound in exports while domestic demand disappointed. Economic activity is performing well as the smooth political transition following the resignation of former Prime Minister David Cameron and the stimulus of the Central Bank are keeping consumer and business confidence at reasonable levels. However, the depreciation of the pound, rising inflation and insufficient wage hikes risk eroding household consumption.

Despite any pessimistic forecast, after the June referendum to leave EC, the automotive market has followed its own track, reporting only two months (July and December) below the 2015 and hitting the new all time record volume.

Indeed, BREXIT is not coming. The British parliament and government has not yet formally taken care of popular vote and when they will, the transaction period of 24 months will start. Our impression is that they will found how to avoid this event.

Ending the year with a shy December (sales at 178.022 units, down 1.1%) the British domestic car passenger market hit in the 2016 a new record with 2.692.786, up 2.3%, hitting the second consecutive all-time record year in the fifth raising year in a row.

Light commercial vehicles ended at their record as well, with 375.000 sales (+1.0%) with total light vehicles market at 3.068.000, for the second time about the 3 million units, ranking as 6th in the World.

Competitive Arena

Ford, Opel and Volkswagen were on top 3 despite the sales losses, while Renault, Mercedes, Kia, Honda and Land Rover reported performances, all in double digit. Jaguar hit the best increase with 34.822 sales, up 45.4%.

Less positive performance were registered for Peugeot and Fiat, but the worse ticket of the year was posted by Citroen, losing 21.3% at 62.991.

At model wise, the Ford Fiesta was the leader with 120.525 sales (-9.7%) followed by the Opel (Vauxhall) Corsa with 77.110 units (-15.2%) and third was the Ford Focus with 70.545 sales (-15.8%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models

Market Outlook

No way to stop the pace of the British new vehicles market! In March, the most relevant month of the year due to the change of yearly plate number, the market scored the highest ever sales record. The fuel to grow is still there after a series of 48 year on year winning months out of the last 49.

According to figures released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (S.M.M.T.) the Car Passenger’s sales in March hit the all time record with 518.707 units, up 5.3% from the same month last year.

First Quarter 2016 was the highest ever with 771.780 sales, up 5.1% from the previous record scored last year and now the year is projected above 2.8 million units.

Competitive Arena

Following two strong months, Ford was unable to keep the pace in March losing 4.9% with 60.349 registrations and 11.6% of market share. In the Q1 Ford sales had been 93.897 (-1.0%).

In second place Vauxhall (Opel in the tables below) recovered after a slow start of the year selling 51.902 cars (+6.6%) with first quarter at 75.033 (-0.2%).

Volkswagen was third with sales flat at 38.6944 and was followed by BMW with 32.470 registrations (+20.6%), Audi with 30.483 (+4.6%), Mercedes with 30.243 (+13.6%), Nissan with 28.489 (-8.2%), Toyota with 21.481 (+4.6%), Peugeot with 20.209 (-7.4%) and in 10th place, Land Rover with 18.234 (+17.6%).

At group-wise, Volkswagen ended the Q1 on top with 18.5% of market share followed by Ford at 12.2% and Nissan-Renault at 9.8%.

Ford Fiesta was as usual the best-selling model with 23.467 sales (-22.0%) followed by Vauxhall Corsa with 17.368 (-10.4%) and the Ford Focus with 14.002 sales (-9.3%).

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models